Bitcoin prices remained stable after the breakout earlier this month. The press conference saw its trading nearly $117,100, up 1.3% over the past 24 hours and 3% over the week. The breakout from the head and shoulder pattern on September 10 is still a $120,800 target, and is even higher.
But not everything is smooth. The two chain red flags sold from large balancing groups and young coin holders suggest a 2% chance of fixing before the rally resumes.
Sales pressure builds up from large balance groups
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Two of Bitcoin’s largest wallet groups have trimmed their holdings since September 15th. These groups are often referred to as “whales” and “sharks.” It holds 1,000-10,000 BTC and 10,000-100,000 BTC, respectively.
The 1,000-10,000 BTC group has dropped its holdings from 4.35 million BTC to 4.33 million BTC. The 10,000-100,000 BTC group fell from 2.17 million btc to 2.16 million BTC.
This is a net spill of about 30,000 BTC in just four days. With Bitcoin prices today exceeding $117,000, nearly $3.5 billion worth of BTC has been trimmed from the holdings.
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Such a decline often indicates that large investors are booking profits or preparing for volatility.
Young coins show fresh sales
Another key-on-chain signal confirmed the photo: used output age band. This metric shows that the proportion of coins from various “age groups” is being moved or sold. In other words, it tracks the amount of supply that last moved a few weeks or months ago.
Over the past two weeks, all young age cohorts have increased their share of spent coins.
Owners for one week to one month: rose from 8.72% to 9.78%. Owners for 1-3 months: rose from 3.67% to 6.08%. Owners for 3-6 months: Increased from 2.04% to 3.26%. Owners for 6-12 months: rose from 1.64% to 3.18%. (Relatively young considering the history of BTC)
These cohorts are considered “young” because they purchased or moved coins during the last year. Unlike long-term holders who maintain Bitcoin for multiple years, younger holders can quickly sell to Bitcoin price increases.
The rise across all four bands means that short- to medium-term holders may be cashing out. This coincides with the sales already shown from the Big Balance Group, forming a clear picture of short-term supply pressure.
Bitcoin price charts still show that they are high, but there are risks
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Despite the sales signs, the wider technical setup remains bullish. Bitcoin surpassed its reverse head and shoulder pattern on September 10th, and has been holding a breakout level ever since. As long as Bitcoin prices exceed $114,900, the immediate upward target remains at $120,800.
However, DIP to $114,900 appears more realistic in the short term, as RSI data flushes another risk. Betcoin prices formed a lower high, with RSI gaining highs between August 22nd and September 18th.
This hidden bearish release often indicates a slower momentum, leaving room for a short 2% pullback (immediate and strongest support level).
However, if Bitcoin prices drop below $114,900, the pullback could increase to another $110,000. Daily closures under that level will undermine bullish structures.
