Bitcoin’s latest correction has spooked traders. BTC price fell from over $120,800 to nearly $102,000 before rebounding almost 9% to over $111,000. While altcoins like Ethereum and XRP have fallen more than 13%, Bitcoin’s 7% decline at the time of writing shows that Bitcoin has held up much better, suggesting it has resilience even amidst large-scale liquidations.
Still, the big question remains: Can Bitcoin stay above $100,000, or will the price decline extend below this important psychological level soon? The answer lies in three graphs.
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Even in a downturn, the holder stands up and the veteran keeps his cool.
The first sign of support comes from the actions of the holders on the chain.
Despite the selloff, the total number of Bitcoin holders has increased from 56.92 million to 56.98 million since yesterday, indicating investors are increasing their exposure as prices fall. This is typical of buy-on-the-buy beliefs rather than panic selling.
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Spent Coins Age Bands (SCAB) also confirms this. This metric tracks the age at which the coin was moved, i.e. whether the old owner is using Bitcoin or the new owner is using Bitcoin.
When the crash started on October 10th, the overall SCAB was around 17,100 BTC, but the 180 days to 365 days band (red) was close to 9,995 BTC, and the 365 days to 2 years band (blue) was close to 2,452 BTC.
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As the decline continued, overall SCAB soared to 23,086 BTC, confirming a surge in spending activity among new holders.
In contrast, the red band fell slightly to 9,646 BTC and the blue band plummeted to 535 BTC. This is clear evidence that long-term holders are staying silent.
This means that panic selling was mainly driven by newcomers and mid-term wallets, while veteran holders continued to hold. And veterans typically hold on to their holdings unless they expect the price to drop significantly, such as below $100,000.
If long-term holders remain inactive and the overall holder base increases, it usually indicates that strong hands are replacing weaker hands in the market. This is a kind of reset that stabilizes the sentiment-driven decline before the next leg moves up.
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Bitcoin pricing reverses from bearish to bullish
Bitcoin price trends tell a clearer story. The recent sell-off was not purely sentiment-driven, but followed a technical setup that often marks a turning point.
The main factor was a bearish divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures buying and selling momentum on a scale of 0 to 100.
A divergence is formed when RSI and price move in opposite directions, for example, when price makes new highs while RSI falls below its highs. This pattern usually indicates that momentum is weakening before a reversal.
That’s exactly what happened between mid-July and early October. Bitcoin made a new all-time high on the charts, but the RSI failed to confirm it and made another all-time high.
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The result was a significant correction of 19.1% (yesterday), about the same as the divergence-driven decline of more than 14% earlier this year. These settings indicate how strongly Bitcoin reacts to RSI signals.
Now, the pattern has reversed. A bullish divergence appeared between September 25th and October 11th. Price has made lower lows and RSI has made higher lows. This suggests that selling pressure is waning and that momentum for a rebound may be quietly building.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $111,600, consistent with the 0.5 Fibonacci level ($111,400). A daily close above this level could confirm new strength towards $113,600, $116,800, and $120,800.
The invalidation point is below $109,100, with downside limited to $106,400 and $101,900, making it unlikely to fall below $100,000 in the short term. Bitcoin price can only be pushed below $100,000 if the daily candlestick closes below $101,900.
