There have been so many US economic events this week, but only a handful are affecting the crypto market.
After last week’s CPI (Consumer Price Index), traders and investors will focus on this week’s FOMC interest rate decision.
US economic data that can move Bitcoin and crypto markets
Traders and investors can consider portfolio cushions by sprinting through US economic data below:
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Retail sales
Retail sales data tracks consumer spending, a major driver of US economic growth. Strong retail sales suggest demand for resilient consumers, and are likely to be higher if they push the Treasury up as investors predict inflationary pressures and tougher financial policies.
This often leads to short-term drawbacks in the crypto market. This is because higher yields and stronger dollars reduce the appeal of non-revenue assets like Bitcoin.
Conversely, lower retail sales indicate a slower demand and a softer economy, which can drive expectations for Fed cuts. Changes in emotions tend to increase risk assets, including crypto, as liquidity becomes more accessible.
Often, framed as both hedging and speculative assets, Bitcoin responds sharply to the surprises of retail sales. Economists surveyed on the Market Watch project saw a 0.3% increase in retail sales in August. This means it will decrease from the 0.5% increase recorded in July.
Strong prints can cause a sale on this account, but weak printing can cause a gathering, especially if investors expect a more regulating Fed attitude.
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“After the release of stronger producer price index (PPI) data yesterday, US Treasury bond yields increased, gold prices fell, and gold prices fell.
FOMC interest rate decision
Meanwhile, perhaps the most important US economic event this week is the FOMC rate decision scheduled for Wednesday. Continuing from last week’s CPI reading. This was in line with market expectations.
Weaker than expected PPI data with 2.6% strengthened market confidence on potential Federal Reserve rate reductions.
Despite political pressure from President Trump and his administration, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell remains cautious.
Nevertheless, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has set US monetary policy, so that decision is important for Bitcoin and crypto. The market responds to changes in actual rates and the Fed tone on inflation, growth and liquidity.
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Hawkish’s stance to signal a higher rate or balance sheet tightening, usually Bitcoin puts pressure on. This impact is due to increased borrowing costs and investors turning towards safer and yield-generating assets.
Conversely, dog signals such as interest rate reductions and liquidity injections support Bitcoin by weakening the dollar and promoting risk-taking.
“Take great care. This CPI/FOMC pivot is important to observe. BTC often price the FOMC in advance. The early drawbacks of the week suggest rebound, while the early upside down indicates the possibility of pullback.
Meanwhile, data from the CME FedWatch tool shows that the market is priced 96.2%.
First unemployed claim
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Using US labor data elsewhere and as a key macro driver for Bitcoin in 2025, last week’s first unemployment claim will be set to report on Thursday and will be the required watch.
This US economic data shows how many U.S. citizens first applied for unemployment insurance last week.
Initial unemployment claims reached 263,000 for the week that ended September 6th, but analysts are looking at this US economic data point falling to 243,000 last week.
If claims skyrocket, the market could shift from optimism to risk of avoidance, fearing a recession.
In that scenario, Bitcoin can initially be parallel to stocks to eliminate risks by investors.
The balance between Bitcoin’s risk-on correlation and hedge appeal makes the unemployed argued as a subtle and influential data point of crypto pricing.
