Stellar (XLM) has been quietly rising, rising 10% over the past week and 3% over the past 24 hours, but the pace is far from explosive. This is despite Tokens escaping from a bullish pattern on their daily charts earlier this month.
If the structure remains bullish, why didn’t prices rise? The answer lies in the tug-of-war between supply and demand, which is being played on-chain and on the charts.
Supply side pressure: exchange balance at record level
The first clue comes from XLM’s Exchange Balance. Over the past year, these have risen to a record 1.03 billion xLM (nearly $469.7 million), with 1.02 billion XLMs marking one of the highest points in history between July and August.
In reality, a high balance means that more tokens are sitting in exchange, and are readily available for traders to sell.
This creates a ceiling effect. Every push is at a higher risk of meeting a wave of sell orders. That supply overhang may explain why the stellar price has not yet continued at rallying like it seen in other altcoins, even after a bullish breakout.
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Demand side pushback: Money flow index curls up
Against this heavy supply, purchasing pressure has not faded. The Daily Money Flow Index (MFI), which blends price action with volumes that track actual capital flows, is above 50 at 51.32, curling high recently after avoiding a July low retest of nearly 29 July.
This suggests there is still a meaningful influx into XLM while the sellers are parked and ready. Buyers are well-active to ensure prices don’t collapse, but not strong enough to overwhelm record supply. This balance of forces keeps the market in a holding pattern.
Zoom in: 4-hour star price chart shows a bullish structure with momentum
To see if this buyer seller’s deadlock is broken, turn to the 4-hour chart. Here, the XLM price is held within the ascending triangle. A bullish continuation setup. Key support is $0.44, and resistance levels are $0.46 and $0.47.
But momentum shows a crack. RSIs for this time frame printed lower highs, whether prices reached highs or suggested short-term fatigue. Combined with a high exchange balance, this slowdown explains why Stellar is still bound to range despite its bullish construction.
A break above $0.47 could drive the price of the Star (XLM) to a new high. That level also matches short-liquid clusters.
If the price reaches $0.47, the liquidated shorts can push the XLM price higher.
However, according to the charts, bullish structures are at risk if the price falls below $0.43.
The bullish setup of the XLM post will be retained, but for now the stellar profit could be first to appear in Beincrypto.
