Just as technology leaders warn of quantum risk, Bitcoin’s security model is under new scrutiny. Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko said in the 2025 All-in Summit that Bitcoin must move to quantum-resistant cryptography or face severe violations within five years.
Yakovenko pointed out that artificial intelligence is speeding up quantum computing progress. He argued that this would increase the chances of successful attacks on Bitcoin’s crypto to “50/50” by 2030.
Solana co-founder raises alarms about quantum threats
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Yakovenko pointed to the adoption of quantum safe tools from Google and Apple as evidence that the migration is already underway.
He emphasized that the influences differed. Engineers face years of effort to protect their assets. In contrast, the public may see wealth gains on a scale similar to artificial intelligence.
“It’s been a long-standing job for engineers, but for everyone else, quantum computing is a huge opportunity,” Jacobenko said.
“The pace of AI is incredible. Research papers are being implemented at an unprecedented rate,” he added.
Regulators and tech giants set timelines
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Regulators have set strict quarter security schedules. The National Institute of Standards has finalized new standards in August 2024, including ML-KEM and ML-DSA. These are currently global benchmarks.
The National Security Agency published the CNSA 2.0 plan in May 2025, requiring that the post-Quantum algorithm be fully used by 2033.
Technology companies are also moving rapidly. Microsoft announced the Majorana 1 chip in February 2024. In June 2025, IBM announced that the Quantum Starling system will operate in New York with 20,000 times more computing power by 2029.
These milestones support Yakovenko’s claim that AI, quantum research, and chip design converge faster than expected.
Meanwhile, the government is beginning to act. El Salvador divides the Bitcoin Reserve into multiple addresses, limiting exposure to future quantum violations. This shows that policymakers treat risks as real.
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Communities divided by timeline and threat levels
The crypto community is split up about how quickly quantum threats are important. Quantum AI researchers Craig Gidney and David Carvalho of Naoris Protocol warn that Bitcoin’s elliptic curve digital signature algorithm, which secures ownership of the coin, could break within five years.
Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards said that 2,500 logical qubits could be sufficient to crack SHA-256, a hash feature that enhances Bitcoin’s job proof within the next decade.
Others say these fears are exaggerated. Blockstream CEO Adam Back posted in April 2025 that quantum computers are decades away from being a real threat.
Micro Strategy Chairman Michael Thaler also took a similar view in a June 2025 interview with CNBC. He argued that most quantum risk talk is marketing, and that phishing and social engineering are far more dangerous.
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Recent headlines show tension. On September 4, 2025, Arizona State University alumni and IBM Quantum enthusiast Steve Tippeconnic used IBM’s 133 Qubit Heron processor to break the 6-bit elliptic curve encryption key in a Shor-style attack.
Researcher Ben Sigman explained in X-thread that this proved that it could be performed in deep quantum circuits on real hardware, but emphasized the limitations.
Sigman pointed out that moving from such toy examples to Bitcoin’s 256-bit elliptic curve signature requires millions of error-corrected qubits, which are at least ten years apart. He added that the real concern is “harvest now, decrypt later” and that encrypted data can be stored today and resolved in the future when hardware is improved.
For now, Bitcoin remains secure, and upgrades such as quadriplegic signature schemes such as Taproot and Nist’s dilithium can be added without a hard fork.
