Once July is over, traders and investors will be keeping an eye on August. They watch some US economic signals that could affect their portfolio.
This week’s US economic signal is particularly important as Bitcoin (BTC) focuses on the $120,000 threshold.
US economic indicators that could impact Bitcoin this week
Crypto Market is on the rise today, with Bitcoin leading the fees when it closes at $120,000. But whether this optimism is sustainable depends on how this week’s US economic signal unfolds.
Consumer trust
The Consumer Trust Report launches US Economic Signals this week. This is scheduled for Tuesday. The Conference Committee’s Consumer Trust Index fell sharply to 93.0 in June 2025, down 5.0 points from May (98.0).
MarketWatch data shows the median forecast is 96.0, suggesting that economists are more optimistic about July. But consumers are growing concern amid Trump’s tariffs.
“Consumers are unlikely to regain confidence in the economy unless, for example, a trade policy will stabilize in the near future, for example, they are unlikely to regain their confidence in the economy,” Reuters reported citing consumer research director Joan Huss.
This erosion of confidence suggests a decrease in risk appetite. Pessimistic consumers are less likely to invest in speculative assets like Bitcoin, and support safer options like bonds and cash.
If consumer trust rises above expectations in July, it could strengthen risk appetite and boost crypto.
Job Report
US labor data is one of Bitcoin’s most important macro factors in 2025. This week’s US Economic Signal features several job reports that place Bitcoin for volatility.
The Employment Initiation and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report and job openings are scheduled for Tuesday and will be released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
impact
The June Jolts report scheduled for Tuesday is projected to be below the 7.8 million recorded in May. Data on job openings, employment and separation in the US could be featured in 7.4 million people, according to economists surveyed by MarketWatch.
Despite the expected drops, 7.4 million readings exceeded the 700 million month low recorded in March, up from the 7992 million issue. Nevertheless, it remains an important highlight of this week’s US economic indicators.
ADP Employment
Another labour market data point to watch this week is the July ADP Employment Report. The BLS report, which is widely regarded as a more comprehensive and official measure, shows that private sector employment fell in June 2025 with 33,000 jobs.
This figure is significantly lower than economists’ expectations for an increase in 95,000 jobs, suggesting a slower adoption. MarketWatch data shows that economists projected an 82,000 job growth in July, which is lower than previous readings.
First unemployed claim
Another labor market data feature in this week’s US economic signal is the first unemployed claim scheduled for Thursday. This weekly employment data highlights the number of US citizens who applied for unemployment insurance last week.
Initial unemployment claims went to 217,000 for the week ending July 19, but economists expect a better outlook for the week ending July 26, with up to 221,000 applications.
An increase in unemployment claims could indicate economic weakness. This increases the likelihood that the Fed will adopt a better financial stance.
Such a shift can weaken the dollar and improve its appeal as an alternative asset for Bitcoin. However, if an increase in claims is considered temporary fluctuations, the impact on Bitcoin may be limited.
Meanwhile, analysts say, coupled with sticky inflation, the resilient labor market can continue to raise interest rates. However, signs from the cooling duties department can soften the Fed’s path.
Non-farm salaries
The July 2025 US Employment Report, or the July 2025 Non-Agricultural Salary (NFP), is scheduled to be released on Friday. Economy added 147,000 jobs in June after 139,000 jobs in April. Meanwhile, after 4.2% in May, the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% in June.
MarketWatch data shows economists expect a 4.2% increase in US unemployment rate at 102,000 as jobs slow. This drop or slowdown reflects the potential economic impacts from President Trump’s tariffs.
Strong employment growth could lead the Fed to maintain its current monetary policy stance or even consider tightening, strengthening the US dollar and potentially curtailing Bitcoin.
However, if underlying economic concerns encourage the Fed to adopt a more stubborn approach, Bitcoin can earn money as investors are looking for valued alternatives.
Analysts say employers are coming to seek clarity around the White House trade policy, where strict employment conditions in the United States must address frequent adjustments to timelines and schedules.
FOMC interest rate decision
Meanwhile, this week’s US Economic Signal highlights Wednesday’s FOMC rate decision. The economic indicator comes after the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed an inflation rate of 2.7% in June.
The July 9th FOMC minutes suggest interest rate cuts this year, with policymakers agreeing that inflation rates had been eased, but remained “a little up.” Furthermore, uncertainty about the outlook has decreased but not disappeared.
However, it remains to be seen whether the Fed will cut interest rates on July 30th. Data from the CME FedWatch tool shows that interest bettors see a 96.9% chance that the Fed does not change between 4.25% and 4.50%.
“What’s even more interesting is Powell’s press conference. A few days ago, Trump met Powell. He hopes the Fed is on the way. This press conference is extremely important as several other Fed governors are also looking for low interest rates,” one user observed.
Certainly, beyond the FOMC’s interest rate decisions, traders and investors will be examining Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech on the signal to the Fed’s future prospects.
If Powell suggests a rate cut in September, it could inspire market optimism. However, if he sounds like the last FOMC meeting, the crypto market may see a sharp revision.
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