The majority of institutional and non-institutional investors maintain an optimistic outlook on Bitcoin over the next three to six months. The findings come from a joint report released Monday by Coinbase and on-chain data platform Glassnode.
The report takes a “cautiously optimistic stance” on the crypto market in the fourth quarter of 2025.
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There are short-term gains, but is the end in sight?
The report identifies several tailwinds that support Bitcoin’s rise. These include solid global liquidity, a strong macroeconomic backdrop and favorable regulatory dynamics.
However, the authors temper this optimism by pointing to the need for a cautious market approach. This warning follows a massive $19 billion leverage flash event that occurred on October 10th.
The US Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy is a key focus for investors, with two more rate cuts expected this year. Coinbase estimates that these two reductions could result in approximately $7 trillion currently held in money market funds (MMFs) being returned to risk-on assets.
Liquidity pressure ahead
On the liquidity front, the Global M2 Money Supply Index, a key measure of global liquidity, showed positive signals at the beginning of the quarter. But then things changed.
The report warns that liquidity contraction is expected in early November. This is due to the combined effects of the US government shutdown and the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening (QT).
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Beware of macroeconomic headwinds
The report cites a survey of 120 global investors, revealing that 67% of institutional investors and 62% of non-institutional investors are optimistic about Bitcoin’s outlook over the next three to six months.
However, clear differences emerge when it comes to cycle sustainability. Almost half (45%) of institutional investors believe the market is in a “late-stage bull market.” This indicates the expectation that the growth cycle will end soon. In contrast, only 27% of non-institutional investors share this view.
When asked about the main “tail risk” for the crypto market in the short term, both institutional (38%) and non-institutional (29%) respondents cited the macroeconomic environment. This shows that concerns are shared among different investor groups.
However, it is important to note that this study was conducted between September 17th and October 3rd, before the October 10th crash.
Analysts support high year-end forecasts
The “Uptober” rally that many investors had predicted appears to have stalled amid the sudden escalation of U.S.-China tensions. As a result, year-end Bitcoin price predictions by major financial institutions are under intense scrutiny.
In early October, Citigroup predicted a year-end Bitcoin price of around $133,000, conditional on continued ETF inflows and increased demand from DAT companies. Standard Chartered offered an even higher forecast, predicting that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 if weekly ETF inflows remain at the $500 million level.
Similarly, JPMorgan argued that Bitcoin is undervalued compared to gold, predicting a year-end price of $165,000. Goldman Sachs also looked to gold as a reference point, suggesting that Bitcoin could potentially soar to $220,000 if gold reaches $5,000 an ounce.
