ASTER (ASTER) is up over 12% in the past 24 hours, but that rally may not tell the whole story. Despite the short-term rally, ASTER price is still down over 22% in 7 days. The market mood seems uncertain, and while today’s rally may excite traders, on-chain signals indicate that confidence is rapidly fading.
All major holder groups appear to be moving in the same direction, rather than in a bullish direction.
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Whales, smart money, and retail businesses all withdraw.
On-chain data shows that confidence among Aster’s large investors is rapidly weakening.
The whale, which has more than 10 million ASTER, released nearly 20% of its total stash in the past week, dropping about 8.05 million ASTER, worth about $12.07 million at current ASTER prices.
Smart money addresses (typically early informed investors) also reduced their holdings by about 5% (about 59,000 tokens), with the overall exchange balance increasing by 12.32 million tokens in the past 24 hours.
This increase in exchange reserves often indicates that more token sales are being prepared, even from retail outlets, reinforcing the bearish trend.
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Retail sentiment on technical charts reflects this weakness. The Money Flow Index (MFI), a measure that tracks buying and selling pressure using both price and volume, continues to hit new lows, indicating that small traders are not buying the dip. As prices fall, retailer interest appears to be drying up.
These changes combine to create a rare consensus across all trading groups that whales, smart money, and retail are all reducing their exposure.
ASTER Price Faces Bear Market—$1.59 Is Key
On the 4-hour chart, ASTER price is trading inside a descending triangle, and this structure often indicates weakening demand. Triangle reference points are located around $1.30, $1.15, and $0.98, which currently serves as an important support zone. A breakdown below these levels could trigger a more severe correction.
For this outlook to change, the token would need to close above $1.59, a key resistance level that would invalidate the short-term bearish trend. A clean break above this level could pave the way for $1.72 or even $2.02, potentially reversing short-term momentum and disproving the uniform bear market seen across holder data.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures price momentum, also shows a hidden bearish divergence (marked by a red arrow), where the RSI rises while the price cuts off its highs. This pattern typically signals that the strength will weaken and the downtrend in ASTER price may continue unless the bulls regain control.
For now, ASTER is at a crossroads. All major trading groups seem to agree on a sell, but a break below $1.59 could prove that consensus wrong.
