Bitcoin’s short-term momentum weakened following the market crash on October 10th. Nevertheless, on-chain data platform CryptoQuant reports that long-term structural demand for Bitcoin remains strong.
In a report released Friday, the company cautioned that it is premature to view the current market as a “season finale.” Another research firm, Tiger Research, forecast a target of $200,000 for the fourth quarter, citing continued online buying despite a sharp rise in volatility.
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Dolphin cohort: a key indicator of structural demand
Analysts at CryptoQuant suggest that the coming weeks will be critical depending on whether the rate of accumulation accelerates. They characterize the current market as a “late-maturity segment” of an ongoing uptrend cycle, rather than a definitive end.
The analysis focuses on the “dolphin” cohort, which holds between 100 and 1,000 BTC per wallet. This group includes large holders of ETFs, corporations, and emerging investors.
The Dolphin group currently accounts for the largest share of Bitcoin supply, holding approximately 5.16 million BTC, or 26% of the total supply. Historically, changes in dolphin collective holdings have been the most consistent indicator of Bitcoin price momentum.
Accumulation drives the cycle
In 2025, the Dolphin Cohort was the only group to increase its total balance year-over-year, adding over 681,000 BTC. Conversely, five other cohorts experienced net decreases in their holdings.
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CryptoQuant noted that the annual growth rate of Dolphin assets remains positive, suggesting that the bullish cycle is not over yet. The group’s current annual holdings are 9.07 million BTC, exceeding the 365-day moving average of 730,000 BTC.
Short-term challenges and price targets
However, the company warned against complacency. The October 10 crash weakened the short-term momentum and required a new phase of accumulation for Bitcoin to test and break the $126,000 level. The monthly accumulation rate will need to accelerate again for the uptrend to resume and reach new all-time highs.
CryptoQuant identified $115,000 as a near-term resistance level and $100,000 as an immediate support level, warning that a break below $100,000 could trigger a significant correction to $75,000.
Institutional support that promotes optimism
Meanwhile, Tiger Research released its own short-term outlook on the same day, offering a more bullish outlook. They argued that the October 10 crash and subsequent liquidations provided evidence that the market had moved from a retail-driven model to an institutional-driven model.
Unlike the decline in late 2021, which saw widespread panic selling among retail investors, the recent correction was limited. Tiger Research said institutional investors have continued to buy after the correction, and further institutional participation could lead to a healthy continuation of the bull market during the current correction.
They predicted that the Fed’s continued interest rate cuts would be a strong catalyst for stock prices to rise in the fourth quarter, raising their price target to $200,000.
