Important takeouts:
Bitcoin will clear the $120,000 hurdle as it eases long-term holder sales pressure.
Short-term holders absorb losses and stabilize the signaling market.
Neutral LTH flows can set a critical breakout stage.
Bitcoin (BTC) has gathered over $120,000 for the first time since August 13, suggesting that Onchain data could enter the accumulation phase as a mitigation of long-term holders (LTHS) sales pressure.
According to GlassNode, the short-term holder realization value (RVT) ratio has been steadily compressed since May, reflecting speculative excess cooling. Historically, rising RVT levels have been consistent with overheated markets, but contraction into the “full market detox” zone indicates that short-term traders are earning less profits compared to overall network activity. If sustained, this trend can lay the foundation for updated accumulation as a clearer market orientation position for investors.
On the supply side, the balance between long-term holders and institutional inflows remained important. After a consistent distribution over several months, the data show that long-term holder net position change (3D) metrics have shifted to neutral regions.
This suggests that the heavy profit-earning to close the recent rally could be tapering, leaving potentially exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and new influx as dominant drivers of short-term momentum.
If this cooling supply dynamic is maintained, Bitcoin could form a structural base in the $115,000-$120,000 zone, similar to the integration phase observed in March and April.
With the decline in the LTH distribution and short-term over-rewinding, the analysis suggested that the market may be preparing for a critical breakout attempt.
Related: Bitcoin’s Next “Explosives” Movement Target $145K BTC Price: Analysis
Short-term holder losses indicate signs of absorption
The long-term supply dynamics appear to be cooled, but short-term investors’ actions also flashed important signals. According to Cryptoquant, short-term holders (STH) have recently been suffering from a stressful period with STH-SOPR immersed low from September to 0.992. This was a stage where speculative wallets consistently achieved losses, and in many cases it was a sign that weaker hands were out of the market.
However, last week, the metric rebounded to just 0.995, still below August’s 0.998, indicating early stabilization.
Historically, such resets tend to play in two ways. It is an expanded loss realization that drives the corrective phase, or a “healthy reset” that quickly absorbs sales pressure. With BTC comfortable integration of over $115,000, STH-SOPR recovery could become a potential marker of market resilience before the new bullish leg.
Related: Bitcoin Bulls bill for $120,000, traders expect the highest ever high
This article does not include investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading movements include risk and readers must do their own research when making decisions.
