The broader crypto market recovered in August, but XLM often moved in the opposite direction. Over the past month, XLM prices have fallen 11%, slipping another 4.2% over the last 24 hours alone, with 2% down in the overall market.
These repeated dips make traders wonder if the recovery is even on the table. The on-chain and technology patterns suggest a downtrend unless the Bulls can intervene.
Social dominance drop coincides with bearish crossover risk
The first warning comes from social control. This measures how much conversation the coin command has compared to other markets. In the case of stars, attention fell sharply. It has dropped by nearly 70% from 1.71% on July 13th to just 0.51% as of press.
History shows that when social domination forms a low pattern of this type, it often aligns with extended modifications. For example, in March, a similar collapse continued, with XLM prices falling from $0.35 to $0.25 to nearly 30%.
If the social domination and price correlation of the star again occurs, a similar drop may not deviate from the equation.
Additionally, on the 4-hour chart, the 50 EMA or exponential moving average (orange line) is about to exceed 200 EMA (blue line).
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The exponential moving average (EMA) tracks price trends by giving more weight to recent candles. On short charts like 4 hours, traders often look at whether a 50 EMA falls below 200 EMA. This forms the “Crucifix of Death.” This is considered bearish as it indicates that short-term momentum is declining for longer trends, and often leads to a sharper drop if the level of support fails.
If confirmed, this bearish “death” crossover becomes a technical trigger that validates what social domination suggests. The star’s momentum is slipping, and there could be a deeper loss on the horizon. Together, social chatter and the looming weakening of crossovers creates a heavy negative side scenario setup.
Clustered XLM price support could replace $0.24
Currently, the XLM price is trading at around $0.39, surpassing thin support by $0.38. If this line breaks, the price could immediately slide to $0.36, from which the weakness could range to $0.24.
This marks a correction of almost 40% from the current level. The problem with the star is that support under $0.39 is clustered very close. When that happens, sharp movements can wipe out multiple levels at once, and XLM prices can’t lower the cushions to any extent.
To recover, the Bulls will need to regain $0.43-0.45. Only then could you play a chart that was previously $0.52 high. Without this, the negative side cases would dominate, and the bearish crossover was once confirmed, allowing for the loss to be accelerated.
Prices after XLM, where there is a risk of a 40% correction amid the looming bearish crossover, first appeared in Beincrypto.
