Why does Bitcoin price not rise if an institution is buying?

While ETF influx and institutional purchases continue to rise, many investors are stumped by the silenced price action of Bitcoin. Billions are pouring into BTC, so why aren’t prices exploding to new highs? Reality is more subtle than it first appears.

Bitcoin ETF inflow

Looking at the ETF Cumulative Inflow Chart (excluding GBTC Outflow), it is clear that demand from institutional players is strong. Since the latest pullback in late March, Net ETF inflow has risen from around 527,000 BTC to over 630,000 BTC, an increase of around 100,000 BTC in under three months. These are quite a few, but Bitcoin prices have been primarily horizontal since their launch in 2025.

It is important to remember that not all ETF flows represent “institutional” purchases in the purest sense. Many ETF purchases come from client allocations, from the wealthy individuals on the net who use platforms such as Family Office or BlackRock. Nevertheless, these flows are important, and stable accumulation is a positive driving force for long-term supply and demand dynamics.

Bitcoin financial purchase

Complementing the influx of ETFs, corporate financial purchases are also strong, with (micro) strategies leading the rates. With MSTR alone, we have seen their holdings jump from around 528,000 BTC to over 592,000 BTC this year alone. Across all treasury companies tracked, total holdings exceed 823,000 BTC, representing an astounding $86 billion worth.

Nevertheless, many market participants feel overwhelmed by price action compared to previous cycles. But we need to contextualize expectations. BTC’s market capitalization is currently in the trillion dollar range. The enormous scale of capital required to run the current cycle. It is not realistic to compare this cycle with a 10x return from previous eras. In fact, BTC has more than doubled from the recent level, up from $40,000 at the time of the ETF’s launch, to over $110,000. This is a monumental achievement of a mature asset class.

Bitcoin supplies overhangs

To understand why Bitcoin prices aren’t rising even further, we must look into sales behavior. By analyzing HODL Waves data for 1-5 years bands, long-term holder benefits can be quantified. Over the past three months, over 240,000 BTC has been distributed to the market from these older bands, with around 5 million BTC in net spills.

This sale has a predominantly offset institutional accumulation. Given that the daily miner issue adds another 450 BTC to the market, we see why prices are struggling to infiltrate higher. The market is in a balanced state with supply and demand.

Meanwhile, open interest in the BTC derivatives market is explosive. From under $500 million three years ago to over $25 billion today. Many new participants like, rather than buying spot BTC, they have chosen to trade derivatives and “Paper BTC.”

Bitcoin’s bullish shift

But now there is reason to be optimistic. Long-term holder sales are currently slowing, with recent net spills below 1,000 BTC per day, a significant reduction from previous monthly averages a few weeks ago. If the influx of institutions remains stable and retail demand begins to awaken, you can easily see another strong leg, even at the level seen early in this cycle rather than at the extreme previous peak. Past instances show that when retail streams spike from these levels, BTC can double its price within a few months.

Conclusion

The inflow of ETFs and Treasury purchases have poured billions of dollars into Bitcoin, but when viewed through the lens of supply and demand, the price response of muted Bitcoin makes perfect sense. Large-scale profit acquisitions from long-term holders and growing derivative speculation balance the inflow.

As long-term sales calm down and institutional buying continues, the stage is set to the next bullish impulse. It remains to be seen whether or not the euphoric retail nerds of the previous cycle are being seen, but even a modest retail inflow combined with current institutional demand could raise prices faster than later.

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making an investment decision.