Bitcoin (BTC) has climbed over $120,000 for the first time in more than six weeks, and was lifted by weak US occupation figures of the US government shutdown, and increased bets on interest rate cuts.
With October kicking off strongly, some analysts are hoping for a year-end gathering at $200,000. However, one expert warned that such a surge is unlikely, citing mathematical improvements, time constraints, historical precedents, and market dynamics.
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Bitcoin hits 6 weeks higher as “Uptober” momentum builds
Data from Beincrypto Markets shows that BTC has scored 5.5% so far this month, serving “Uptober”‘s reputation. The press conference was trading at $120,254, an increase of 1.02% over the past 24 hours.
It now suggests that some signals are matched, further expanding the rally. One of the key signals is the Pi cycle top indicator, which predicts cycle peaks using simple moving averages of 111 and 350 days. The indicators are far from notifying the top, suggesting that BTC has more room to grow.
“The Pi Cycle Top is 65% away from the danger zone. Historically, we predicted tops until Hobonichi,” the analyst posted.
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Can Bitcoin really hit $200,000 in 2025?
But how far will BTC go this year? Now, many analysts believe $200,000 is an achievable goal. For example, in late August, Asset Manager predicted that Bitwise would reach this price level by the end of the year.
Currently, other analysts point to chart patterns and historical analogies to validate this target. Analyst Techlead noted that the long-term trend for BTC remains intact within the log growth channel, suggesting that the technical signal could rise further.
“Bitcoin is still extending the trend at $200,000 by the end of the year. The mistake is that we don’t understand that BTC moves exponentially. The higher the price, the faster the movement. The log chart is the only way to track this channel.
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Another market watcher compared Bitcoin’s current trajectory in the 1970s with an explosive run of gold.
They suggested that Bitcoin, often considered digital gold, exhibits similar structural patterns on the charts. If analysts claim, if parallel holds, the $200,000 price target could be realistic within the current cycle.
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Additionally, seasonality adds to bullish outlook. Bitcoin’s average fourth quarter return was 79.26%, according to Coinglass data. At the current level, it’s around $120,000, and even if BTC matches that average, the price will rise above $215,000.
Despite these signals, lawyers and Bitcoin advocate Joe Carrasare has argued that the $200,000 year-end price is “very unlikely.” He outlined several factors to support his argument.
Carlasare emphasized that BTC remains at its $80,000 shortfall in its target, with only 90 days remaining (about 60 trading days on CME). He emphasized that achieving this would require an average daily gain of $850 without significant pullbacks or integrations.
“Bitcoin rarely maintained its rating pace for three months, even the strongest bull run.
Carlasare added that as prices rise, market capitalization growth demands exponentially more capital. So, when you reach $200,000, unlocked sellers will need billions of influxes between $150,000 and $190,000.
