Important takeouts:
GlassNode data flags Bitcoin profit indicators as late bull market cycle signals.
Bitcoin’s capital inflow has weakened and has made huge profits since BTC reached $124,000, but in a few months a new all-time high could arrive.
New and short-term holders have accumulated and offset sales pressure.
According to Analytics Platform GlassNode, Bitcoin (BTC) enters a “historically slow phase” of the market cycle, with profit-making metrics and capital flows reflecting signs from the top of the previous cycle.
The data shows that Bitcoin’s current cycle shares similarities with the 2015-2018 and 2018-2022 runs, reaching an all-time high (ATH) about two to three months after the current relative stage.
The company noted that Bitcoin’s circular supply spent 273 days above the +1 standard deviation profit band, second only to the 335-day winning streak seen during the 2015-2018 cycle. Meanwhile, long-term holders (LTHS) have already achieved more benefits than everything except one previous cycle, indicating an increase in sell-side pressure.
“These signals reinforce the view that the current cycle is historically solid in the later period,” GlassNode said in its weekly report, noting that in past cycles such conditions often precede new highs within months.
Bitcoin has slipped nearly 9% since reaching $124,000, and the capital inflows associated with the decline are weak. BTC has noticed that CAP growth has peaked at just 6% in recent weeks, compared to 13% during the $100,000 breakout in late 2024.
The amount of profits is also softer. GlassNode observed that in its latest ATH attempt, profit acquisitions are well below the spikes seen at $70,000, $100,000 and $122,000. Nevertheless, the realized losses are medium $112 million per day, within the scope of historic norms for local amendments.
Related: Bitcoin is struggling at $113,000 as Fed Bowman suggests faster rate cuts
Bitcoin demand is clear, but the new highs are elusive
Despite the pressure to make profits, encrypted data suggests new demand. The youngest cohort of Bitcoin Holders (wracks under a month) has overturned the net positive with the supply held by the group, which saw a surge in 73,702 BTC in September.
Short-term holders (STH) have also been actively added, accumulating 159,098 BTC. This new capital was an absorbent coin distributed by dynamic long-term holders (LTHS) that are common in sustained bull markets.
However, Santiment’s Onchain’s insight warned against hoping for immediate rebounds. While retailers’ enthusiasm for “buying DIP” has historically been ahead of the list, the short position remains insufficient to burn large short squeezes.
Market sentiment has become more negative since Bitcoin fell below $114,000, but analysts point out that the fear level has not yet reached surrender.
At the same time, whales continue to accumulate, the wallet will hold between 10 and 10,000 BTC, adding over 56,000 coins from late August. Additionally, exchange balances have been reduced by over 31,000 BTC over the past month, reducing short-term sales pressure.
Related: Have you bought a dip? These metrics say the $112,000 Bitcoin price was local bottom
This article does not include investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading movements include risk and readers must do their own research when making decisions.
