Solana (Sol) currently trades Notch for over $210, up 3.09% today, nearly 30% higher per month. However, despite the strong percentage of profits, traders may not have felt the rally completely. The pullback was sharp, and the Solana price struggled to maintain momentum, flattening within the $205-215 range.
As a new month begins, the familiar Solana story could repeat itself. Another local high that faces risk of profitability.
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NUPL signals the risk of profit
The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric measures the overall profitability of the market by comparing the current price to the coin’s cost base. The rise in NUPL indicates that more holders are profiting, which often coincides with the period of profit.
On past days, Solana’s NUPL rose by about 15.4%, moving from 0.26 to 0.30, forming another local peak. Previous peaks are consistent with corrections. On August 28, when Nupl came on top, Solana slid from $214 to $205. This is a 4.2% drop. Previously, on August 13th, NUPL reached 0.30, with prices corrected almost 8%.
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Now, as Nupl is once again approaching local highs and Solana prices hover at close to $210, the setup suggests there could be another wave of profit-making waves. But what if you say that cash out has already begun?
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Changes to Hodler’s net position will change negative
Hodler’s net position tracks whether long-term holders (usually accumulating for several months are adding or reducing positions. Positive read signals accumulate, while negative ones indicate that long-term holders are cashing out.
Currently, Solana’s Hodler Net Position Change has dropped sharply to red, exceeding ~1.5 million Sol. This indicates that long-term investors are reducing exposure even when prices are higher.
History reinforces this risk. In June 2025, a similar drop to negative territory coincided with Solana’s price correction. Larry’s resume was only performed when the metric was positively reversed. That pattern suggests that the current red reading could deepen Solana’s pullback unless Hodler’s conviction has returned.
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Solana’s price action and money flow confirms weakness
Solana’s price action reflects the same hesitation. Solana is just above $210 after a 30% increase each month, but it can’t convert bounce into a full-fledged gathering. The key downside level is $194 for a $204 break and is lower if sales accelerate.
To extend the uptrend and disable fix-specific outlook, you need a clean breakout of $215 to $220.
Money Flow Index (MFI) – measures capital inflows and outflows against prices – add another note sign. The MFI climbed in line as Solana’s current prices bounced back, but fell lower as prices were pulled back. This divergence suggests a weaker DIP purchase. New money is not flowing actively to support higher prices.
The lack of dip view that follows long-term investors will win cash while unrealized profits are high marks a risky triple in Solana’s prices.
