Linea has traded nearly $0.025 after a rapid revision of the daily correction of 9%, and is currently down more than 40% since September 10th. The broader market is gearing up for potential Fed rate reductions, but Linea has become one of the daily losers.
The flow of the wallet reveals sharp disparities. Smart Money has staged a large number of exits (for certain reasons), but only the largest holders continue to maintain the pressure.
Smart Money Exit matches bearish breakdowns
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Smart Money Wallet has cut Linear Holding by nearly 85% in the last 24 hours, trimming 23.9 million tokens ($0.025, close to $598,000) leaving just 4.37 million, according to on-chain data. This book of Exodus coincided with the breakdown of the layers of the head and shoulders. This is a bearish structure that goes back later.
Timing suggests that these investors detected risk early and reduced exposure before deeper losses.
Despite that exit, exchange balances fell by 36.4 million linea ($910,000 at $0.025) over the same period. Spillage from the exchange usually suggests stable purchasing pressure.
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But this pressure is not extensive. The top 100 wallets (so-called megawars) added 157.4 million tokens ($3.9 million at $0.025), with both retail and smart money reducing exposure and supporting the market. In short, Linea is almost entirely floating by its largest holder. But the problem is: How long is it?
Buying pressure is not convincing
Money flow index (MFI), which combines price and volume to track money coming and going, can help explain why purchases from mega whales aren’t lifting their confidence.
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The MFI has been low since September 15th, when Linea prices were revised. Typically, an increase in MFI means a strong dip viewing. The decline in MFI indicates weak demand or buyers are chasing the rally.
The divergence is obvious here. The net exchange leak confirms that the token is off the platform, but MFI shows that rather than supporting dips, it is more likely that the wallet will buy short-term rises (as shown by the short-lived MFI spikes) and flip through swing trades.
This cut highlights the vulnerability of purchasing pressure.
Bearish pattern sets linea price targets
The technical drawing reflects the same weaknesses. Linea prices have already been broken down from the head and shoulder patterns. The September 16th neckline break lined up at the Smart Money exit, bolstering bearish cases.
The breakdown predicts a downside target of nearly $0.019. To recover, Linea will first need to regain $0.029 to weaken its bearish tone, then reestablish its bullish momentum above $0.033.
Until then, the risk has been firmly leaning due to the combination of smart money leaving, retail sales and weakening of MFIs.
