Is Bitcoin prices better than this cycle gold and Nasdaq?

Currently, Bitcoin prices appear to be on the verge of entering the euphoric phase of price action after an already strong bull market. But was this cycle just as impressive as the US dollar price chart suggests, or could Bitcoin actually suffer a poor performance when compared to other assets and historical cycles? This analysis explores numbers, compares multiple cycles, and examines Bitcoin’s performance against assets such as gold and US tech stocks, not just the US dollar, but also gold and US tech stocks, giving us a more clearer view of where we actually stand.

Previous Bitcoin Price Cycle

Looking at Bitcoin’s growth after the cycle has slowed, data initially looks promising. Bitcoin provided a return of about 634% at the time of writing from the low pressure system at the tail end of the last Bear Market. These are great profits and are supported not only by price action, but also by strong foundations. The institutional accumulation through ETFs and Bitcoin Treasury holdings is robust, and on-chain data shows the majority of long-term holders who refuse to make a profit. Historically, this is a kind of background that precedes the powerful gradual stages of the bull cycle, similar to what we saw in previous cycles.

Current Bitcoin Price Cycle

Looking at TradingView’s USD price chart, the current Bitcoin price cycle doesn’t look bad at all, especially in terms of stability. The deepest retracement of this cycle was about 32%. This happened after it went back to around $74,000-75,000, over $100,000. This is much milder than the 50% or more drawdown seen in past cycles. A lower volatility could mean a lower chance of rising, but it also reduces the market risk for investors. The price structure repeatedly pushed to a new history high, following a “step-up” pattern, a sharp assembly followed by a choppy consolidation, and another assembly. From a fundamental perspective, the market remains strong.

Bitcoin Price vs. Other Assets

When you measure Bitcoin against something more stable than the US dollar, such as the Nasdaq and other US tech stocks, another photo appears. This comparison is more direct than BTC vs USD, as US tech stocks are also growth, speculative assets. Here, Bitcoin performance doesn’t look epic. In this current cycle, climbing beyond the previous highs is kept to a minimum. However, the charts show that Bitcoin is currently turning previous resistance into support, potentially setting the basis for a higher movement. What we can see before double-top cycles is the second peak at a fairly low level, suggesting that Bitcoin’s second peak in the last cycle could have been driven more by global liquidity expansion and the debate of Fiat currency than true outperformance.

The “digital gold” story takes another important comparison, looking at BTC vs Gold. Bitcoin has not caused previous all-time highs since its 2021 peak, when measured in gold. That is, investors who bought and held BTC at the peak of 2021 would have performed poorly compared to simply holding gold. Due to the low final cycle, Bitcoin vs. Gold went back to over 300%, but Gold itself became a strong Bull run. Measurements in gold terminology remove the debilitating effect of Fiat and indicate the “true” purchasing power of BTC.

True purchasing power

To take this a step further, adjusting the Bitcoin vs. Gold chart for the expansion of the Global M2 Money Supply will give you a more calm picture. In recent years, when considering the massive liquidity injection into the global economy, the cycle peak price in Bitcoin’s term “liquidity adjustment” is still below its previous peak. This helps explain the lack of retail excitement as there are no new highs in actual purchasing power terms.

Conclusion

So far, Bitcoin bull markets have been impressive in dollar terms, earning over 600% of profits from the low pressures and are less volatile. However, performance is far less extraordinary when measured against assets such as US tech stocks and gold, especially tailored to expanding global liquidity. Data suggest that many of the gatherings in this cycle may have been fueled by declines in omission rather than pure outperformance. Although there is still room for important advantages, especially if Bitcoin can break through liquidity adjustable resistance and push it to even higher prices, even if investors can pay close attention to these ratio charts. They can provide a clearer perspective on relative performance and provide valuable clues as to where Bitcoin prices go next.

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making an investment decision.