Bitcoin finance companies have become one of the most important demand drivers of this cycle. Collectively, 86 stock traded companies currently have over 1 million BTC on their balance sheets. What began as a strategy in 2020 has since spread across the corporate landscape, with new entrants appearing to participate every week. But looking closely at their purchase history reveals surprising insights that many of these companies could potentially hold more Bitcoin today if they follow a simple rule-based strategy for accumulation.
MSTR leads the current status of Bitcoin Treasury holdings
MSTR (Strategy) is a clear leader among corporate Bitcoin holders, with almost 640,000 BTC. Over 1 million BTC is effectively locked across all top public Bitcoin finance companies. This assumes that the dynamics that permanently reduce the supply of Bitcoin and strengthen the financial premium of Bitcoin (assuming that it will not be sold!) are highly positive for the economics of Bitcoin supply and demand.
MSTR example: Buy the top on Bitcoin Cycle
As an example, get the MSTR (Strategy) activity. The company created some of its heaviest allocations in late 2024. This is because Bitcoin has skyrocketed above $70,000 after the ETF approval. This was far from unique as the wider financial sector showed the same pattern of front-loading purchases in the euphoric phase.
Understandable (it’s easiest to raise capital when prices rise and emotions are high), but as a result, the Treasury often has overpayment. In fact, backtesting shows that by waiting for a modest pullback, you could have saved 10-30% on average a company compared to actual entry prices. Of course, no one has any crystal balls to predict price action, but it’s probably helpful not to buy right after a triple-digit percentage profit in at least a few weeks!
Simple MVRV data-driven modifications for MSTR and TREASURIES
One simple adjustment can make a huge difference in using the MVRV ratio as a filter. This approach is not complicated. They don’t try to time the exact bottom and don’t rely on subjective judgments. Instead, use the rolling MVRV percentile threshold to avoid allocations at the most overheated stages of the bull market.
Avoid buying when the MVRV ratio is in the top 20% of the top 20% of historical measurements (representative of overestimation) and simply deploying its capital during a cooler period, with MSTR (Strategy) alone, it currently holds 685,000 BTC, almost 50,000 BTC more than it currently owns.
At current prices, additional Bitcoin is over $5 billion. Looking at it, “overlooked” Bitcoin is roughly equivalent to the total lifetime holdings of other active Bitcoin finance companies (excluding Marathon Digital).
Similar frameworks have been tested in other markets such as Altcoins, Equities and even the S&P 500, and have consistently surpassed the average blind dollar cost. Average strategic dollar costs beats the emotional dollar costs that average pretty average regardless of market conditions.
Impact on MSTR, the Ministry of Finance and individual investors
For a finance company, implementing this model can mean billions of dollars worth over time. For individual investors, the same principle applies in the same way as simply avoiding tracking gatherings at the euphoric stage and welcoming the market to you instead.
Of course, you have to acknowledge the nuance. Companies face constraints in raising capital, carrying out large block transactions without slipping, and managing shareholder expectations. However, even within these limitations, simple data-driven filters can significantly improve results.
Conclusion: The path of MSTR to smarter Bitcoin accumulation
Bitcoin finance companies were a huge net positive for the network. Their total BTC holdings of 1 million will reduce supply, increase the multiplier effect of money, and highlight an increase in institutional adoption of Bitcoin. However, the data shows that most of them may almost certainly be improving. A simple strategy of avoiding purchases during overheated conditions adds 50,000 BTC with MSTR (Strategy) alone, and is worth over $5 billion today.
For both businesses and individuals, the message is the same. Discipline is better than FOMO. While the Ministry of Finance has reshaped the supply environment for Bitcoin, the next evolution could be a smarter accumulation strategy that maximizes returns and limits negative market volatility without increasing risk.
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This simple Bitcoin strategy would have made them billions
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making an investment decision.
Source: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/mstr-50k-bitcoin-mvrv-btc-strategy
