Historically, Hedera Hashgraph’s native token Hbar offered mixed performances in October. Over the past six years, its performance has been split evenly between profits and losses.
HBAR spins 20.3%, with a profit of 3.98% in 2022 and 5.40% in 2023 in 2021. Downside had a sudden decline in October, including a 19.4% DIP in 2024 and a decline in back-to-backs in 2019 and 2020.
Hbar will fight after profits in early September
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September began with a positive note from HBAR driven by a wider market upward trend that raised prices to $0.2551 per month on September 13th.
However, once market sentiment cooled, the token entered the consolidation phase between September 14th and 18th before the Bears regained control.
Since then, HBAR has slipped nearly 16%, erasing most of its previous profits. On the daily chart, measurements from the moving average convergence branching (MACD) indicator confirm that the token is in the bearish stage.
During pressing, the MACD line (blue) is placed under the signal line (orange), indicating the bear’s advantage.
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MACD indicators identify trends and momentum in price movement. This helps traders find potential purchase or sale signals through a crossover between the MACD line and the signal line.
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As the MACD line crosses above the signal line, it shows bullish momentum and potential upward price action. Conversely, if the MACD line is below the signal line (in the case of HBAR), it is a signal that bearish momentum is dominant.
This setup suggests that without bullish catalysts, the sales pressure observed by late September could spread through October.
In addition to this pressure, market sentiment around HBAR remains critically negative. According to Santiment data, it is currently -0.719.
Weighted Sentiment tracks discussions about cryptocurrency across social media and online platforms. It measures the amount of mention and the balance between positive and negative comments.
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If weighted sentiment exceeds zero, it shows more positive comments and debate about cryptocurrencies than negative ones, suggesting favorable public perceptions.
Negative readings, on the other hand, reflect bearish feelings and show more criticism than support. HBAR’s persistent negative weighted sentiment thus reflects the broader market bias towards tokens heading into October. This could lead to price issues.
Hbar futures traders are bearish
Among futures traders, the token dive length/short ratio supports this bearish outlook. At the time of pressing, it was 0.84, and remains a downtrend.
The long/short ratio measures the balance between bullish and bearish positions in the asset futures market. Values ​​above 1 reflect positive sentiment, indicating that more traders bet on price increases (long) than on reductions (shorts).
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Conversely, a ratio below 1 indicates that bearish bets outweigh bullish bets, indicating that traders are expecting even more negative aspects. With HBAR ratios below 1, futures traders are positioned overwhelmingly against losses rather than recovery.
Hbar faces tests in October
These trends add to the pressure of bearishes that have already been focused on tokens, and it is likely that October will continue to bear the defeat of HBAR unless a significant change in sentiment appears.
HBAR extends weekly declines and could drop to $0.1654 if bearish feelings grow.
Meanwhile, reversal of emotions and renewed purchasing activity could provide the catalysts needed for short-term recovery. In that scenario, the price of the HBAR could skyrocket above $0.2266 and surge to $0.2453.
