As July ended, several important developments in the Bitcoin (BTC) market emerged. In particular, profit-raising pressure resurfaced in the last week of the month, raising concerns about a potential turning point for August.
Based on analysis from market experts and on-chain data, four major sources of sales pressure could quickly form the Bitcoin trajectory. Explore each element in detail.
1. Earn profits from the wallet of a woken “door whale”
In early July, Beincrypto reported that the whale’s wallet, holding 80,000 BTC, had woken up over 14 years later. The whale wallet sales activity, promoted by Galaxy Digital, slowed Bitcoin’s upward momentum in the last week of July.
Encrypted data shows that large leaks from Galaxy digital wallets often match Bitcoin price corrections. On July 29th, Lookonchain continued to detect more spills, causing fear of another sale.
“Is Galaxy Digital helping to sell BTC again? For the past 12 hours, Galaxy Digital has transferred another 3,782 BTC ($447 million).
Additionally, Beincrypto reported that two additional dormant wallets that were inactive for 6-14 years were active. Spotonchain recently reported three dormant whale wallets tied to a single entity that moved 10,606 BTC ($1.26 billion) after three to five years of inactivity.
The number of whale wallets appears to add sales pressure headlines in August.
2. Signs of sales pressure from long-term holders
The second source of sales pressure comes from long-term holders (LTHS), which are often considered the backbone of the Bitcoin market.
According to the encrypted report, LTHS began withdrawing funds as BTC hovered around the $120,000 mark at the end of July. This behavior may reflect a careful mindset that many investors prefer to lock their profits rather than keeping them through potential volatility.
“Long-term holders (LTH) have begun to become net negative with a $120,000 resistance, a psychological level of historical importance. This change suggests that some investors who have held throughout the previous cycle may be beginning to recognize the profits,” says analyst Burakkesmeci.
In the first quarter of 2025, we supported drug BTC with a negative net position from long-term holders under $75,000. If the group continues to be on sale, it could create a lot of sales pressure and increase the risk of a strong revision in August.
3. Minor leaks are increasing
The third factor is an increase in minor outflows. This is an important indicator of sales pressure from Bitcoin Miners.
According to encrypted data, during July, it began climbing again after BTC leaks from Miner wallets fell. This shift indicates a possible trend reversal.
Miners often sell when liquidity is needed to cover operational costs, or when they want to lock their profits after a price rise. If this trend continues, it can amplify sales pressure, particularly when combined with activities from whales and long-term holders.
“The average amount per transaction sent from the associated miner’s wallet can cause a price drop if miners send a percentage of reserves at the same time,” explained Cryptoquant.
4. Sales pressure from US investors
Coinbase Premium Indicator reflects the price gap between Coinbase and Binance. Negative premium means Bitcoin trading at Coinbase’s low prices, indicating weak demand in the US market or strong sales pressure.
This indicator essentially represents the behavior of US investors. It remained mostly positive, but at the end of July it became negative.
“The Bitcoin Base Premium Gap has once again become negative. What does that mean? Demand in the US market is weakening. We need to be careful,” commented analyst IT Tech.
Historically, negative premiums have not always led to trend reversals. However, in many cases, it shows slowing down with upward momentum. Continuing sales pressure can lead to negative consequences.
Inverted signal from the August MVRV ratio
Some analysts have adopted a more cautious attitude in August, particularly after Bitcoin recorded its fourth consecutive month of profit.
Q3 is historically the weakest quarter of the year, according to Coinglass Statistics. August in particular is often the worst month of the third quarter.
Cryptoquant analyst Yonsei pointed out that the MVRV (market value to realised value) ratio is approaching the cycle top threshold. This signal may appear by late August.
During the 2021 cycle, the MVRV ratio formed a double top, accurately predicting market peaks. If history repeats itself, August could mark Bitcoin’s local top before entering the revision or integration phase.
In short, we enter a zone where optimism and attention must coexist. On-Chain Timing Guide Guiding your strategy. Now is the time to improve risk management and stay agile,” concluded Yonsei.
Despite these concerns, Kaiko’s latest report expressed confidence in Bitcoin’s market depth. They believe that the market can absorb current sales pressures.
“However, the strong liquidity profile, consistent with the ability to process large orders and the growing demand from finance companies, shows the presence of sophisticated traders. These traders should reach more prices as BTC’s price action is heading towards a choppy month,” said Cuisine.
Whales, LTHs and miners can cause volatility, but the current market structure can prevent serious collapse.
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