According to a new report from Fidelity Digital Assets, roughly 28% of total Bitcoin (BTC) supply will effectively become acyclicBy the end of 2025.
Fidelity predicts that the combination of dormant addresses (inactive for over seven years) and public companies with over 1,000 BTC will exceed 6 million by the end of this year. This integration could result in a major supply shock to the market.
The idea of rarity replaces abundance
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In 2010, the Bitcoin ecosystem was eager to cycle more BTC. Some websites offered 5 bitcoins for one click.
Today, if BTC exceeds $100,000, then more than $100,000, then such efforts are no longer needed. Fidelity’s research highlights important trends. For a year ago, the number of unmoving Bitcoin has steadily increased, and this has led to a sudden reversal. Given the fixed total of 21 million Bitcoin, the increase in acyclic coins increases the possibility of price increases.
Fidelity’s report identifies two important groups that contribute to this illiquid supply. These groups include non-moving addresses recorded for over seven years. It also includes public companies that own at least 1,000 BTC.
The combined group is estimated to have more than 6 million BTC by the end of 2025, accounting for 28% of the total supply. Fidelity further predicts that these holdings could grow to 8.3 million BTC by 2032.
Possibility of commercial purposes
The key question is whether these long-term holders will benefit. According to Zack Wainwright, a researcher at Fidelity Digital Assets, these two groups had more than $628 billion in Bitcoin as of June 30, 2025 ($107,700 per BTC).
While this represents a massive, unrealized profit, Wainwright does not expect to reverse the illiquid supply trend. However, he admitted that there were early signs of surrender, with 80,000 “ancient bitcoins” (coins that have not been moving for over a decade) on sale in July 2025.
Wainwright concludes that liquid supply will continue to shrink, and investors need to understand this shift and shape their long-term portfolio strategy.
