DogeCoin Price has revised 2% in the last 24 hours, wiping out weekly profits and pushing seven-day performance into negative territory. Some chain indicators suggest that the shortcomings of dogcoin may not be over.
Specifically, we break down two important cohorts and supply profit data that supply potential bearish continuation. If the key support has cracks, the Doge can drop, potentially 15% less than the current level.
Two important cohorts have been drawn
The HODL Waves metric shows that two important dog coin holding groups are reducing their current position. These cohorts are as follows:
The six- to 12-month owners have fallen from 15.46% to 14.705% in the past two weeks for the one- to three-month holders, with the stock falling from 8.0% to just 4.614%.
This suggests that both medium-term and long-term followers are selling, not just short-term traders. These cohorts often show broader holder-based emotional changes. If both reduce exposure at the same time, it usually means that reliability for short-term price recovery is reduced.
This is especially concerning as this shift happened during the dip, not after the rally. This means that these holders are not making any profit. They are leaving with losses or minimal returns, which could indicate deeper negative side horror.
Hodl Waves shows the distribution of coins by age and helps you identify how long the various holder groups hold tokens before they move.
Profit supply is still high, and that’s a problem
Currently, 76.95% of Dogecoin’s distribution supply is still profitable. Historically, when this number exceeded 73%, price adjustments continued.
Lastly, at this same level, which was on July 30th, Dogcoin was trading around $0.22. From there the price quickly dropped to $0.19.
At the time, the percentage of profit supply fell to 61.79%, but only after that reset the price of dogcoin began to rise again. Currently we are in the same 76% range. The risk is that the same setup may be repeated again. The supply of profits must drop before the buyer returns. Until then, they face heavy selling pressure with every rise.
This is also linked to the waves of HODL. When a high supply of profits is present and medium to long term holders begin to reduce their positions, it usually reflects fears of losing profits or moving forward with a deeper decline.
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Dogecoin Price Chart and Key Metrics confirm bear pressure
Technically, Dogecoin is hovering for $0.21 near a critical support level. If it breaks underneath this, the structure becomes neatly bearish. The next key support is $0.20, but the broader bear target is $0.18, marking a 15% drop from the current price.
Meanwhile, the Bull and Bear Power (BBP) indicators performed a negative inversion. This means sales strength will overtake purchasing power and strengthen what on-chain data already shows. Retail stores are for sale and buyers are far apart.
The Bull Bear Power (BBP) indicator (also known as the Elder Ray Index) measures the strength of the buyer (bull) and seller (bear) by calculating the difference between the extreme and moving average of prices. This will help identify whether bullish or bearish forces currently dominate the market.
The change in momentum is clear. If the $0.21 level is not retained, a bearish scenario becomes more and more likely. However, if Dogecoin Price collects and pushes above $0.23, the bearish hypothesis will no longer exist.
Postdog coins at risk of a 15% drop as key cohort exits first appeared in Beincrypto.
