Crypto Investors may be on the sidelines from Bitcoin this year, and there could be accumulation of Crypto analysts predicting that Bitcoin could drop by as much as 70% on the next Bear Market.
However, Crypto analysts will be split where Bitcoin is heading next. Some say the bear market is still far away, while others think it could come much earlier.
“We’ll say there’s a 70% drawdown from the highest ever,” Cowen told Kyle Chasse in an interview released Thursday, saying that previous Cycle Bear Markets saw 94%, 87% and around 77% Bitcoin (BTC) drawdowns.
“Does it have to happen? No, but you know, history will at least warn us to believe that it may be.”
It will drop sharply from $250,000 Bitcoin
Bitcoin supporters such as Bitmex co-founder Arthur Hayes have forecast the price to $250,000 by the end of this year, which means a 70% drop to around $75,000.
“For me, if I start screaming in the fourth quarter, it’s going to be easy this time, as if it’s not different. He added that he might wait until mid-2026 to re-enter.
According to CoinmarketCap, Bitcoin was trading at $117,010 at the time of publication, up 3.41% over the past 30 days.
Cowen said that market participants should expect another strong rally, but should not underestimate how quickly it peaks.
“Obviously, investors are hoping we’ll coil up and be at the top of the market cycle at that final gathering,” he says, and that should be the base case.
“But remember, once that starts happening, the top can always be on the rise?
“If we start to see the movement, everyone will feel euphoric,” he added.
ETH surpasses Bitcoin towards the end of the cycle
Meanwhile, Cowen said he expects Ether (ETH) to “fight” Bitcoin for a few more weeks, but will ultimately surpass the top towards the end of the cycle.
“Until the cycle ends, Ethereum could be outperforming from now until the end,” Cowen said.
“We are hoping for ETH to weaken by October,” he added. According to TradingView, the ETH/BTC ratio, which measures the relative strength of ether to Bitcoin, has increased by 8.56% over the past 30 days.
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Some Bitcoiners say that Bitcoin prices still follow a typical four-year cycle, while others are not sure.
“I think 2026 is the New Year,” said Matt Hogan, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer. “I think we’re widely a few years ago,” Hogan added.
“I think the chances of Bitcoin going to the 140-150 range this year will be over 50%,” Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg said recently.
Meanwhile, strategy executive chairman Michael Thaler said in June that “winter will not return.”
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