Bitcoin (BTC) has been on a steady downtrend since reaching an all-time high of $123,731 on August 14th. Over the next few weeks, we lost almost 10% of that value.
The major coins are currently trading for less than $110,000, and the outlook for the month looks increasingly bearish given the trend of historic decline in September.
History refers to more flaws this month
Historically, September has been one of the weakest months of BTC, often marked by negative returns and increased volatility. Data shows that over the years, the coin recorded multiple red closures in September. This includes a price dip of 8% in 2020, a 7.3% in 2021 and a 3.10% in 2022.
Although we recorded small profits of 4% and 7% in September 2023 and September 2024, respectively, this month we were able to see the return of the downtrend, given the combination of declining institutional demand and growing sentiment in the bear market.
ETF’s Exodus and Negative Emotions put Bitcoin at risk of deeper corrections
August was characterized by a decline in capital inflows into BTC-backed exchange trade funds (ETFs). Over the 31-day period, the total outflow from these investment products was $751.12 million, marking the fourth consecutive month of stable inflows that had supported an increase in BTC in the previous months.
This development is important. This is because since the approval and launch of the Spot BTC ETF, assets have been pushed to new record highs, which is directly linked to institutional inflows. The more capital was poured into ETFs, the stronger the price momentum of BTC.
Currently, the coin may face additional underside pressure in September as influxes are reversed and institutional interests showing signs of fatigue. Without consistent support for large-scale ETF demand, the market could struggle to maintain bullish momentum, and assets are vulnerable to sharper corrections if retail buyers can’t fill the gap.
Furthermore, the negative weighted sentiment of the coin confirms the possibility of further price drops this month. According to Santiment, the metric is currently -0.707 at press time.
Asset weighted sentiment measures overall positive or negative bias by combining the amount of social media mentions with the tone of their arguments.
When assets’ weighted feelings are positive, it indicates increased confidence and renewed interest. Conversely, negative weighted emotions reflect a bearish state. This means investors are becoming skeptical of the short-term outlook for tokens, which could lead to fewer deals.
Bitcoin Bears Circle $103,000
With institutional investors and spot traders becoming increasingly cautious, a decline in optimism could lead to a decline in demand for BTC and a decline in trading volume this month.
If the purchase continues, the coin’s price could slip to $107,557. If the Bulls are unable to defend the support floor, this could lead to a deeper decline to $103,931.
Meanwhile, in the case of a soaring demand, BTC could rise by rebounding above $111,961.
Disclaimer
In line with Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Although Beincrypto is committed to accurate and unbiased reporting, market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always carry out your research and consult with an expert before making any financial decisions. Please note that our terms and conditions, privacy policy and disclaimer have been updated.
