Important takeouts:
Bitcoin raised 4.5% in 48 hours and regained $114,000.
BTC’s open interest reset shows a healthier upside after long-term leverage.
The CME gap, close to $111,300, remains a short-term risk to bullish momentum.
Bitcoin (BTC) prices rose 4.5% in under 48 hours, retesting $114,000 on Monday. The recovery follows a sudden revision between last Monday and Saturday, with data showing that there is less pullback on aggressive short circuits to set a clean base for future upsides.
Between September 21 and September 27, Bitcoin slipped from $115,600 to $109,500, with a 5.3% drop down on futures, in addition to a 6.2% drop in open interest (OI) ($426 billion to $39.9 billion). The 30-day correlation between price and OI was tightened to +0.46, with signaling longs trimming exposure rather than forcing the shorts to move. Such resets often clear excessive leverage and pave the way for healthier gatherings.
Spot market dynamics are also favorable. Buyers continued to dominate central exchange, with 30 days of net flow in negative territory of around 170,000 BTC. This means that more coins will leave the exchange than they enter. This pattern is often seen as a sign of accumulation and a drop in the pressures on the seller side.
Meanwhile, Crypto Market Researcher Dom noted that its immediate target could exceed $115,000. The analyst said,
“The liquidation divergence works pretty well. Spotbooks thin down to $115K on binance. Thin books = easy to move prices.
Funding rates are cooled to a neutral range, removing the risk of cascading long apertures and instead supporting a gradual restructuring of leverage. However, there is a lack of aggregation between the aggregated spot cumulative volume Delta (CVD) and OI.
The Spot CVD remained almost flat during Monday’s rally, with OI gradually increasing. If prices stabilize above $113,000, Price Action welcomes delayed spot bids and sets the stage for the much-anticipated “Uptover” rally.
Related: $300,000 Bitcoin target: “More and more possibilities,” analysts say
The risk of a CME gap is close to $111,300
Bitcoin breakouts are over $114,000, but derivative traders may be watching a CME gap that cannot be filled between $111,300 and $110,900. The CME gap occurs when Bitcoin futures from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange approach the weekend, reopening at different price levels, leaving visible blanks on the charts. Historically, BTC has shown a strong trend to revisit these levels, with all gaps since June being completely closed.
This suggests that short-term pullbacks to the $111,000 zone cannot be ruled out before the recovery rally gets higher. The CME gap also coincides with a fair value gap, which will wipe out the internal liquidity block between $112,300 and $111,400 when it drops to $111,000.
So, short-term dips near these levels will remain in play for the next few days. Immediate bullish neutralization can be a strong day close to over $115,000, reducing the chances of a drop to $111,000.
Historic trends highlight that filling of CME gaps is not guaranteed, but the recent 100% closure rate has become an important technical factor for traders assessing short-term risk within Bitcoin’s wider bullish Q4Outlook.
Related: $108K BTC Price PingPong: 5 Things You Need to Know About Bitcoin This Week
This article does not include investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading movements include risk and readers must do their own research when making decisions.
