Bitcoin options investors have taken a modest long position after the asset price has exceeded $120,000.
GlassNode shared sentiment from this market via X’s post on Friday.
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Betting on “up-to-bar” in the BTC options market
According to a company’s post, Bitcoin options flow is clustered between strike prices between $100,000 and $120,000, with only light calls observed at $130,000.
This illustrates two important developments in the Bitcoin Options market. First, there is an increase in call option activity within the $100,000-$120,000 range, suggesting that traders are positioned at potential upsides above $100,000.
Call options grant the owner the right to purchase the asset at a certain price. Therefore, this range of increased interest usually reflects bullish sentiment or hedges against a critical price rally.
However, the relatively few call options at $130,000 indicate that expectations for travelling well above $120,000 remain limited, at least for now. In other words, there is optimism in the market, but comes with measured convictions.
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The second phenomenon is the increase in very long term call options in the $300,000 range. Money (OTM) options are options with act prices well above the current price. The mentioned $300,000 level GlassNode is in a very high price range compared to the current price of Bitcoin about $120,000.
This rising investor interest in these ultra-high-priced call options can be interpreted as “cheap convex bets.” Convexity is a structure in which profits increase dramatically as prices rise. In other words, investors are taking a strategic position to get massive returns with small investments if Bitcoin prices grow.
These moves are not a solid directional bet, with Bitcoin actually rising to $300,000. Instead, they show that a strong emotionally driven desire to be exposed to potential benefits drives the market.
Meanwhile, Ethereum Options Market shows a completely different pattern. Many traders are selling ETH puts and BTC $120,000 phones that expire on October 10th, preparing for the ongoing consolidation of Ethereum prices.
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This strategy allows traders to collect premiums by betting that neither assets sees a significant short-term price increase. Many of the activities are moving away from Ethereum as Bitcoin has an increasing advantage in the options market.
A historical view of Bitcoin in October
So, how expensive is Bitcoin? Bitcoin analyst Timothy Peterson addressed this question in a post from X. There, he used historical data in October to predict the potential price range for BTC.
“Bitcoin performance in October was not ‘set up’ by September and is set up throughout the year,” the analyst said.
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He explained in October that Bitcoin is historically strong, but the strength of its rally has been heavily influenced by the momentum of the first nine months of this year. Price increases from January to September determine the strength of the “up-to-bar” for the year.
A chart comparing returns from October after 2015 to those from January to September shows that Bitcoin has historically amplified its previous momentum. If the return from the start of the year is high, October will see a bigger gathering. October remains restrained when they are weak.
In 2025, the January-September return was around 20%, marking the weakest bull market year on record. Data suggests that October may perform less than in the past few years.
Timothy Peterson said from a historical perspective the expected price range for this October rally is between +7% and +31%. This converts to a price range of $122,000 to $149,000.
