Important takeouts:
Analysts have confirmed that Bitcoin is 70% likely to reach a new high within two weeks.
ETF influx and bullish futures premiums strengthen the upside-down outlook.
Internal liquidity between $114,000 and $113,000 can cause a short pullback before a breakout.
Bitcoin (BTC) is setting the stage for a potential rally, with analysts pointing to a 70% chance that cryptocurrency could push its record high within the next two weeks. According to Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr., the market situation is currently balanced and ready for a higher movement.
Adler Jr. highlights the short-term holder (STH) MVRV Z-scores for both the 155-day and 365-day cohort hovering near zero, indicating that the market is not overheating or sold out. As BTC trading is just above the realised price of STH, the setup suggests that a one-week-to-two year integration phase could precede breakouts. “It’s coming from above,” Adler Jr. points out, referring to the seasonal tailwinds.
Derivative data further strengthens the constructive outlook. Bitcoin futures are traded at a consistent premium, with a 7-day base of more than 30 days, usually a structure related to bullish trends. However, Adler Jr. warned that a slight overheating signal appeared before the recent FOMC event, increasing the cost base lighter and higher, suggesting late stage positioning.
Still, the base case remains tilted towards strength. “There’s a 70% chance that we’ll see a gradual uptrend or horizontal integration over the next two weeks,” Adler Jr. explained.
Meanwhile, institutional demand remains a solid anchor as US spot Bitcoin ETFs have garnered a net inflow of $2.8 billion since September 9th, pushing activity into a decisive and positive territory. The influx supporting BTC prices and technical indicators has supported traders that could be the decisive stretch in Bitcoin’s next bullish leg.
Related: Bitcoin Tests the Best “Speed” of All Time If Bulls Recover $118K: Trader
Will Bitcoin pause for dip or will it break into $124,000 directly?
Bitcoin won 8.5% this month, rising from $107,000 to $117,800 ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. The steady rise leaves pockets of internal fluidity, suggesting the possibility of short-term pullbacks before continuing. The historically leaning bearish seasonality of September adds weight to this scenario.
That being said, Bitcoin’s broader behaviour in 2025 is far in opposition to expectations for retracement. For most of the year, assets skip internal liquidity levels and instead move between swing highs and lowest in external liquidity zones, i.e. higher time frame charts over several weeks. A comparable movement occurred in July when BTC bypassed liquidity near $105,000 and quickly spiked to new highs after checking daily structures (BOS).
It appears that a similar setup is currently in formation. If Bitcoin secures closures of over $117,500 each day, it checks another BOS and reduces the odds of DIP to under $114,000. Such developments will coincide with analyst Axel Adler Jr.’s highest new all-time predictions in the next two weeks.
The narrow window remains for retesting order blocks close to $114,000-113,000, but suggests that improving macroeconomic conditions and accelerating ETF inflows will result in buyers intervening earlier and limiting negative side opportunities. The balance between structural liquidity gaps and bullish momentum could determine whether Bitcoin will pause or directly hit $124,000.
Related: Knocking Bitcoin’s lack of yield
This article does not include investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading movements include risk and readers must do their own research when making decisions.
