Bitcoin (BTC) price fell below $105,000 on Friday, bringing back memories of an earlier capitulation phase when dejected traders signaled the beginning of a major reversal.
While bearish sentiment dominates the headlines, several veteran analysts argue that October’s gloom could set the stage for another historic recovery.
October’s economic downturn spurs accumulation – echoes of past cycles
Some traders are comparing today’s market to late 2020, when Bitcoin traded around $12,000, far below its all-time high, and then soared 170% in one quarter.
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“It felt like death. Everyone was moving to stocks, SPACs, GME. Crypto was hopeless… and then the mother of all outperformances happened. None of this price movement scares me,” said one investor.
On-chain data supports that idea. Glassnode has reported solid net accumulation among small Bitcoin holders (1-1,000 BTC) since early October, despite the price falling from $118,000 to $108,000.
The platform’s trend cumulative score shows renewed confidence from retailers and mid-cap wallets while large holders have paused distribution.
Meanwhile, Stock Money Lizards notes that Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-score, a measure that compares market value to realized value, hovers around 2.15, a zone historically associated with accumulation rather than euphoria.
“The pattern is clear… anything below 2 means a city of pain for holders. Smart money saved. Far from overheating, plenty of runway left,” they wrote.
Analyst Axel Adler pointed out that Bitcoin’s main support range is $106,000 to $107,000, warning that a loss of this level could trigger a retest of the annual moving average of $100,000.
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As long as this foundation holds, “the market structure remains bullish,” Adler said.
Long-term change and cyclical exhaustion
Still, macro enthusiasts like CredibleCrypto warn against ignoring the big picture. He points out that Bitcoin’s entire 16-year history overlaps with the stock’s own 16-year bull cycle, and both may be nearing exhaustion.
“Cryptocurrencies may enter their first secular bear market at the same time that traditional equities may also experience one,” they said, predicting “overall misery.”
This scenario stands in sharp contrast to the view of analyst Miles Deutscher, who argues that Bitcoin’s digital gold story will eventually decouple it from risk assets.
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AI prediction, cycle theory, market psychology
Quantitative forecaster Timothy Peterson adds some nuance to this debate. His AI model still gives Bitcoin a 75% chance of ending October above $114,000, and he claims that “even in the worst-case scenario, there is still 50% upside from here.”
Notably, with about two weeks left until the end of October, Bitcoin was trading at $105,232, down more than 4% in the past 24 hours.
Economic cycle analysts share similar optimism. Trader Cyclop calculates that each previous Bitcoin bull market lasted about 1,064 days, and puts the current cycle within 90 days of a potential peak in November or December 2025.
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“We are entering the most dangerous but rewarding phase of the bull market,” he warned. “Winners are average winners and losers are average losers.”
Meanwhile, JDK analysis dismisses the bearish victory lap as premature, reminding supporters that previous bullish cycles have lengthened over time.
Technical situation is tense with strong defense
Technically speaking, Bitcoin is currently stuck at the 200-day EMA, which investor Lark Davis calls the bullish line. A failure to hold could open the way to $100,000 of support, but a bounce from here could justify the accumulation theory.
“Bitcoin is clinging to the 200-day EMA. This is the bull-bear line. The bulls need to join forces to defend this line. If they fail to do so, we may end up testing 100,000 as support,” Davis wrote.
Bitcoin’s October lull is shaping up to be a pivotal inflection point, as on-chain data shows strength behind the scenes and traders are split between despair and determination.
But it is the conviction of the market’s smallest buyers that will determine whether there will be a pause before a breakdown or a calm before going parabolic again.
