bitcoin Bitcoin Bitcoin Bitcoin with the price
of Bitcoin ripping to new highs the question of where it will top out this cycle is back in focus
in recent weeks prominent forecasters have raised their predictions amid increasingly bullish market
conditions today we’re putting some of the most bullish predictions under the microscope to find
out how persuasive their arguments really are and whether these new eyewatering targets aren’t just
one big top signal my name is Nick and if you hold Bitcoin this is a video you can’t afford to miss
before I start reeling off price predictions let’s begin with a little market context to ground
our analysis on May 21st Bitcoin rallied to $110,797 breaking the previous all-time
high of $109,588 set on January 20th at Trump’s inauguration day the next day it raced
even higher to within a sneezing distance of $112,000 leaving us with a new all-time high
of $111,980 at the time of making this video it seems like just yesterday we were all lamenting
what a miserable Q1 it had been for crypto’s prices but lo and behold just one week into Q2
and the bottom was in and it was off to the races again at least for Bitcoin bitcoin’s price formed
a local bottom around $74,500 in early April at the height of the US China trade war and since
then the chart has looked like a big beautiful staircase heading to the moon fingers crossed
we won’t be taking the elevator down anytime soon anyways as it stands sidelined traders and
altcoin pickers have been watching in disbelief as Bitcoin rallied by more than 50% in just 6
weeks outpacing the more modest recovery seen in most other cryptos despite rallying from their
April bottom few altcoins if any are near their all-time highs as of late May eth and Soul for
example both rallied 97% but remain far below their dizzyian highs they saw in January and uh in
ETH’s case that also applies to January 2022 but uh let’s not beat someone when they’re down anyhow
you know what that means for the crypto market bitcoin dominance is still climbing it’s been
rising non-stop since August of 2022 with only the slightest of hiccups along the way in November
2024 for example Bitcoin dominance slipped by a little under 5% giving altcoins a chance to catch
their breath for a few weeks before the punishment resumed and resume it did now since December
Bitcoin dominance has actually been rising even faster it hit 65% in May a level not seen since
2021 now for context Bitcoin dominance hit almost 74% in January 2021 before plunging quite suddenly
to below 40% by the end of April 2021 and this period was the historic alt season when the price
of most altcoins seemed to multiply several times over in just a few weeks alt season is a topic for
another video but Bitcoin dominance watchers will no doubt be keeping a close eye on the under 60s
to 70% region god help us if that level is ever flipped into support and Bitcoin dominance starts
heading towards 100% just kidding i think so all in all Bitcoin is showing tremendous strength
again and this has got all of us asking questions about how high it could climb whether the top is
already in or if we could be looking at Bitcoin’s new price floor i know that last one might sound
a bit crazy but look at what happened when Bitcoin flipped $10,000 in late 2020 it 5xed over the next
7 months and a four figure Bitcoin was never seen again and that sounds like an exciting analog for
where we are today now quite comfortably above $100,000 but on the other hand the market
structure of today is completely different to the accumulation phase that preceded the 2020 to 2021
bull run bitcoin has been rallying for the last 2 and 1/2 years now it is already up 623% from the
bottom of nearly $15,000 reached in late 2022 so how much more gas can we expect there to be in
this tank before we answer that question though I plenty depending on who you ask and where you
look extraordinary things have been happening on the Derbit Options Exchange where a call option
expiring on June 27th with a strike price of get this $300,000 has become the most popular bet in
the market for the allimportant quarterly expiry if you’re not familiar how options work a call
option just means that traders are betting that Bitcoin will be above 300K at the end of June
yes this June people are paying good money to bet that Bitcoin will triple in value reaching
a market cap of $6 trillion almost twice that of the largest company in the world by market cap
Microsoft in like 3 to four weeks coindesk has quite rightly described this crazy bet as being
akin to a lottery ticket because as far as we can tell there is nothing on the horizon in terms of
macroeconomic factors or technical analysis that points to this being a likely outcome will Bitcoin
hit $300,000 one day sure why not some perfectly sensible people think it’ll happen sooner rather
than later too and these include practitioners of the Elliot wave theory some of whom are convinced
that we’re approaching the fifth and final wave extension of what is potentially a super cycle
that began in the 2010s in these circles it’s not controversial to predict Bitcoin cracking well
above $200,000 or even $300,000 by the end of this cycle by which they typically mean within a matter
of months rather than years but 3 to 4 weeks well that’s a new one so what’s going on over at
Derabet well either these options buyers know something we don’t or someone is trying to incite
some FOMO by conspicuously buying up calls with outrageous upside targets or more likely people
are getting carried away with the excitement of the bull market and just gambling here Marcus
Telen founder of 10X Research thinks the options market is giving us an obvious top signal quote
“Bitcoin skew measuring the difference in implied volatility between puts and calls has dropped to
nearly minus 10% indicating calls are pricing in significantly more volatility than puts this
suggests traders are aggressively chasing upside rather than hedging downside risk in our
experience such extreme skew levels often reflect peak bullish sentiment a classic contrarian
signal.” This sounds all too familiar bull markets tend to top out precisely when everyone has been
convinced that their targets aren’t nearly high enough we are reminded of that one city analyst
who said in November 2020 that Bitcoin would reach $318,000 by the end of 2022 bitcoin famously
did not do that and instead closed that year at $16,500 but hey what’s $31,500 between friends
eh on the other hand does a little silliness in the options market mean it’s all over for this
cycle i tend to think not similarly forecasters raising their targets isn’t necessarily a symptom
of irrational exuberance revising your targets to reflect the latest available information is just
common sense and that’s exactly what we have seen more recently prominent bulls raising their
targets the question is on what grounds are they making these predictions and how persuasive is
their case and moreover do they stand to benefit financially if they make headline grabbing price
predictions and people FOMO into the market as a result the answer to that last question is usually
yes but this is complicated somewhat because that doesn’t necessarily mean their prediction was made
in bad faith or poorly formulated and with enough FOMO buying eyewatering predictions may become
self-fulfilling prophecies still if the people making very bullish price predictions are whales
of some description you might want to take their targets with a pinch of salt oh I didn’t see
you there well now that I’ve got you I may as to scrutinize some concrete predictions and we’ll
begin with Standard Charted whose head of digital asset research Jeff Kendrick has predicted an
optimistic but increasingly common prediction of $200,000 by the end of 2025 now for context
Standard Charted is an enormous global retail bank founded in the 19th century that held some
$850 billion in assets under management at the end of last year big old institutions like this one
tend to be more conservative in general so there is an element of trade behind Kenrik’s price
predictions he predicted in 2023 that Bitcoin would reach 120,000 in 2024 this uh didn’t come
to pass as Bitcoin reached a little above $108,000 in December last year but it was only about 11%
off now depending on your perspective 11% could be pretty wide off the mark but we’ve seen much
worse misses in our time like that guy from City in April Kendrick extended the horizon of his 120K
target to Q2 2025 at the time of making this video that is 1 month and just 7 percentage points
away from Bitcoin’s new all-time high so it’s very possible that this will happen however in May
he decided that he was simply not bullish enough and issued a price prediction of $200,000 by the
end of 2025 with a further target of $500,000 by 2028 or 2029 he argues that accumulation by Wales
and quote strategic reallocation away from US assets will be major drivers of a rally towards
200k by the end of the year and the idea of trad institutions de-risisking from US government bonds
by buying Bitcoin would have sounded fanciful just 2 or 3 years ago but some say it’s already
happening speaking of which Kendrick says that the market quote is now all about flows and flows
are coming in many forms he’s not wrong as ETF flows and institutional adoption are materializing
faster than even many bulls had anticipated the US spot Bitcoin ETFs are about to close May with
the third highest monthly inflows on record likely above the current level of around $5.8 8 billion
according to crypto asset manager Coin Shares $2.9 billion of these inflows were recorded in a single
week and that’s 25% of their total ETF inflow this year which is actually quite mind-boggling
when you think about it kendrick also points to inflows from the Abu Dhabi Sovereign Wealth Fund
buying BlackRock’s IBIT Bitcoin ETF and the Swiss National Bank buying shares of Michael Sailor’s
Strategy of course buying shares of IBIT or MSTR is just handing Black Rockck or Michael Sailor
money to buy more Bitcoin with meanwhile Sailor’s strategy has now accumulated more than 580,000
BTC or approximately 3% of the total supply its purchases have slowed somewhat in recent months
and one of the reasons is reportedly because of the increase in number of companies deciding
to follow his playbook new findings published by K33 Research count more than 70 publicly
traded companies that have now joined the corporate treasury accumulation race sailor’s
lead may look unassailable now but there is a new corporate Bitcoin treasury announced every
week that is out to give him a run for his sats notable entrance include GameStop which just spent
$500 million to buy $4,710 Bitcoin 21 a new joint venture between Tether Soft Bank and Canour and
Nakamoto a recently founded by David Bailey a crypto adviser to US President Donald Trump and
who could forget Trump Media and Technology Group trump’s own company also recently launched a
corporate Bitcoin treasury strategy backed by $2.5 billion in private placement from around 50
institutional investors and these new entrance join the likes of Metaplanet Simler Scientific
and Cooler Technology Group as both disciples and competitors of Sailor’s Strategy now all of
this competition is perhaps pretty bad news for Sailor but it’s incredibly bullish for the price
of Bitcoin there are companies popping up left right and center with the sole purpose of buying
and holding Bitcoin at a time when a single coin costs more than $100,000 sailor’s playbook is
notoriously price elastic as buying when prices are high is a feature rather than a bug in his
strategy anyhow next up is Bitwise which has stuck to a target of $200,000 for 2025 since last
December along with a longerterm price prediction of 1 million by 2029 like Standard Charted
Bitwise’s thesis rests on sustained institutional inflows and growing concerns over sovereign
credit risk bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley believes that this year is a tipping point for Bitcoin as a
mainstream macroeconomic asset with the regulatory reset in the US facilitating massive institutional
capital entry specifically he envisions a scenario where wealth managers overseeing an estimated 30
to 60 trillion in assets make just a 1% allocation to Bitcoin now that’s a modest allocation for
them but hundreds of billions of dollars of inflows into Bitcoin meanwhile Bitwise’s head of
European research Andre Dragosh takes a global view of sovereign debt as a driver of Bitcoin’s
growth he cites a model that values Bitcoin based on the default probability of a basket of G20
sovereign bonds which already indicates a value of Bitcoin of above $200,000 of course when it comes
to eyewatering sovereign debt the US is undefeated debt growth is only accelerating and the US
government is very likely going to keep printing more money to pay existing creditors and issue new
debt to keep the lights on this will devalue the dollar and since Bitcoin is generally measured in
US dollars that’s good news for Bitcoin holders as Bitweiser’s chief investment officer Matt Hogan
puts it quote “Doll down equals Bitcoin up.” At the time of making this video the US dollar index
is down 11% since the start of the year the dollar has been given a helping hand on the way down by
the White House which is funding its status as the global reserve currency hogan noted in an April
blog post that the Trump administration’s trade objectives call for a quote weaker dollar even if
it means ending its role as the world’s reserve currency he cites a recent speech by Steven
Moran the head of Trump’s White House Council of Economic Advisers that tore into the dollar’s
reserve status as causing quote persistent currency distortions and unsustainable trade
deficits that have decimated US manufacturing but it’s Horsesley who spells out the long-term
big picture here he envisions a scenario in which Bitcoin emerges as a digital alternative to the US
dollar and treasuries propelling its market cap to $50 trillion he hasn’t put a date on this but it
indicates a Bitcoin price of around $2.4 million a coin a very large increase over Bitwise’s
2029 target of $1 million incidentally Kathy Woods Arc Invest recently raised its Bitcoin bull
case for 2030 from $1.5 million to $2.4 million this projection implies a compound growth rate of
58% over the next 5 years and assumes that 60% of the capital currently invested into gold will flow
into Bitcoin plus $13 trillion in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows by 2030 for reference the total inflows
recorded since the launch of the spot bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 is around $134 billion which is
around 1% of $13 trillion ark and Kathy Wood are famous for their incourageably bullish outlook
and as usual they are counting on a parabolic adoption curve just around the corner they do
have some form here as in 2021 they predicted that Bitcoin would reach $500,000 by 2026 a
prediction that could easily go the way of that one made by the city analyst if 2026 brings the
next bare market moving on to another big name in the crypto industry Arthur Hayes founder of the
BitMX exchange pioneer of the perpetual futures contract and chief investment officer of Melstrom
he predicted in an April blog post that Bitcoin could touch $250,000 by the end of the year if
the Federal Reserve pivots to quantitive easing aka money printing hayes wrote quote “Bitcoin
trades solely based on the market expectation for the future supply of fiat.” He believes that
the Fed is in the middle of such a pivot too on April 1st Federal Reserve Chair Jerome
Pal indicated that the Fed would slow down how quickly it’s letting treasuries roll off its
balance sheet cutting the cap from $25 billion to $5 billion per month while maintaining the
existing cap of $35 billion for mortgagebacked securities importantly he also added that excess
principal payments received from mortgagebacked securities may be reinvested into treasuries
hay’s interpretation of this is that the Fed is mathematically keeping its balance sheet constant
while at the same time engaging in Treasury money printing his conclusion quote “Bitcoin will scream
higher once this is formally announced.” Now we certainly wouldn’t mind seeing that happening
although $250,000 is seriously pushing into highly optimistic territory it’s a target shared
by Robert Kiosaka the best-selling personal finance author businessman and Bitcoin enthusiast
this prediction is based on the imminent collapse of what he calls quote the Marxist central bank
system a description that would baffle Marxists and central bankers alike as Kiosaka recently
put it the quote system is crashing many going bankrupt keep hodling i am buying more Bitcoin
i predict Bitcoin climbs to 250K this year buy more do not sell open your eyes and open your mind
and listen to people like Ral Pal Michael Sailor Anthony Pompiano and many others i’m reminded of
the peak of the 2021 bull run when Michael Sailor urged his followers to mortgage their house to
buy more Bitcoin and to never sell it under any circumstances the price of Bitcoin fell from
69,000 to 15,000 over the following 12 months there’s a lesson in that be very careful about the
kind of people to whom you open your eyes and open your mind to and we don’t know what Bitcoin
is going to do by the end of 2025 but what we can tell you is that risk management is the only
way to stay alive in crypto the higher the price goes the more exciting this market is going to
feel but this is precisely when FOMO can lead to financial ruin very quickly be careful out there
folks and if you need practical advice about how to avoid getting wrecked in the crypto market
then you’ve got to check out our video on that right over here and if you’re not subscribed
to the channel yet you can do that right over here this is me Nick signing off thank you very
much for watching and I’ll see you again soon
