Bitcoin predictor traders may be misunderstanding the principles of statistics that they could reach their highest cycle price by the end of this year, Bitcoin analysts say.
This is because some analysts have recently predicted the outcome of Bitcoin (BTC).
“Anyone who thinks Bitcoin needs to peak in the fourth quarter of this year doesn’t understand statistics or odds,” Plan said in an X post on Friday.
“From a statistical and probability perspective, it’s equivalent to flipping a coin and getting a tail three times in a row and betting all the money that the fourth flip must be a tail,” Plan said, explaining that relying on the previous three half cycles does not provide sufficient statistically important data.
There is no “basic reason” for Bitcoin to peak in Q4
Analysts also argued that the harving cycle is no longer related to Bitcoin, following recent debates in the industry, particularly with the rise of Bitcoin financing companies and the significant influx of US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs.
“There is a basic reason for zero for a peak in the fourth quarter of 2025 other than psychological and self-fulfilling prophecy,” he explained. According to Coinglass, Q4 was the highest average performance quarter on average for Bitcoin since 2013.
However, if the harving cycle is still moving, Bitcoin could enter the downtrend as early as October, analysts have pointed out previously.
Traders have recently split up about whether Bitcoin will peak at the end of the year.
The industry is debating whether bull markets will continue in 2026
On August 17th, Canary Capital CEO Stephen McCrug said, “We have a chance to see more than 50% of Bitcoin going to the 140-150 range this year before we see another bear market next year.”
Related: Bitcoin Price Ignores Major Salary Mistakes in the US to Eliminate a Surge of 113.4k
Others hope that the bull market will continue through 2026. “I think 2026 will be this year,” Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hogan said in July.
Meanwhile, some analysts predict that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 before the end of the year. In April 2025, Bitmex co-founder Arthur Hayes predicted the level, and in May, unchained market research director Joe Burnett made the same prediction.
Magazine: ChatGpt link to murder, suicide, “accidental jailbreak”: AI Eye
