According to Onchain analysis, Bitcoin could head for a deeper revision as cumulative recognition long-term holder profit cuts have reached levels seen at the top of the previous market cycle.
According to GlassNode, long-term holders are aware that 3.4 million Bitcoin (BTC) in profits is slowing down in profits, a sign of “fatigue” after the Federal Reserve was cut last week.
Bitcoin is currently below the main support level at around $112,000, hitting a four-week low of $108,700 on Coinbase in Thursday’s trading, according to TradingView.
As with September 1, it hasn’t returned to $107,500 yet, but analysts say it could head that way.
That bouncing off the dip “is soon losing momentum and the price hovering near this level again, which could lead to another wave of stop loss sales,” said 10x research head Markus Thielen in a note shared with Cointelegraph.
“This comes when many people are placed for Q4 meetings. Instead of making the bigger surprise higher, we’ll make corrections instead.”
Bitcoin’s cooling stage is GlassNode said
GlassNode reported this week that the realised profit/loss ratio indicates that the market has just moved from the third extreme, above 90% of profit acquisitions that moved three separate times of this cycle.
Historically, these peaks have marked the top of the main cycle, saying “probability prefers the cooling stage ahead.”
Some Bitcoiners are at a loss
Thielen also said that the used output profit margin (SOPR) is shown in terms of action as some Bitcoin holders are beginning to sell at loss.
In bull markets, if the SOPR is below 1, it can flag seller fatigue and precede rebound, but in bare markets, rejections of 1 or more often update the pressure on the underside. According to GlassNode, the ratio is currently 1.01.
Related: Bitcoin collapses at under $109,000, but data shows buyers are intervening
More importantly, he said short-term holders’ net unrealized gains/losses (NUPL) are approaching zero, and new holders are threatening to cause liquidation as they “rapidly reduce losses.”
Where is the next bitcoin?
GlassNode analysts concluded that “the risk of deeper cooling remains high, highlighting macrostructures that are increasingly similar to fatigue” unless demand from the institution and holders match again.
Meanwhile, Tyren said the company will remain neutral “unless Bitcoin can recover $115,000.”
Strategy Chair Michael Saylor said Bitcoin will win in the fourth quarter after the macro headwinds silenced earlier this week.
The assets have traded at $109,645 at the time of writing, losing 6.5% in the past week.
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