Bitcoin prices closed at $115,390 last week, temporarily violating the $115,500 resistance level that was pushed over the weekend. Last week they produced a powerful green candle for the Bulls, and remained upwards until this week. The US producer price index fell far below expectations last Wednesday morning, giving the Bulls the market’s Bulls hope for a decision to cut imminent interest rates by the Federal Reserve. However, the following morning US inflation data was registered at 2.9% as expected, but was lukewarm because it was higher than the previous month’s 2.7% reading. The Federal Reserve will cut off that work this week at the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. There, you need to weigh the advantages and disadvantages of reducing. As the market is fully expecting an interest rate cut of 0.25% (as seen on Polymarket), what the Fed now is likely to lead to market corrections.
Currently, major support and resistance levels
Entering this week, Bitcoin, the next level of resistance, is aiming to close the above mentioned. However, the above method here stands $118,000. If Bitcoin sets up another strong week, it could push prices above the $118,000 level just to get back down on Sunday. We should expect the seller to step hard into it and put pressure on the bull to return some ground.
If Bitcoin is seeing a weakness this week, or a refusal from the $118,000 level, you will need to look down on the $113,800 level for short-term support. There’s $111,000 in support every week. Closures there will likely challenge the low of $107,000.
This week’s outlook
After refusing from $116,700 last Friday, the bias is slightly bearish as of the end of Sunday. However, this could soon return to bullish bias, if Monday’s US stock market price action resumes bullish trends. MACD is currently trying to reestablish it as support for bullish momentum, holding it above the zero line and reopening. Meanwhile, RSI is soaked, but remains bullish. If sales are increased on Tuesday, we will ask 13 SMA for support.
All eyes were on the Federal Reserve with Chairman Powell on Wednesday as he spoke at 2:30pm in the East. Except for the announcement of an interest rate cut of 0.25% at 2pm, it could cause significant market volatility that will certainly flow into Bitcoin.
Market mood: Bullish, we hope that two green weekly candles will be tested this week at a $118,000 level.
Next few weeks
If Bitcoin can jump over this pressing hurdle in the near future, it will be important in the coming weeks to keep up the momentum. If Bitcoin can again establish $118,000 in support, we expect Bitcoin to last up to $130,000.
Assuming the Fed will lower prices this week, the market is looking forward to additional interest rate cuts in October. Therefore, supporting market data and continuous reductions are important for future Bitcoin price ranges and will encourage bullish continuation towards new highs.
On the flip side, the Fed, which has surprised the key bearish event, or the decision not to cut it on Wednesday, will certainly send Bitcoin prices back to the support level test.
Terminology Guide:
Bulls/Bulk: Buller or investor who expects prices to rise.
Bears/Bears: Sellers or investors who expect prices to drop.
Support or Support Level: At least initially, the level at which the asset is held price. The more touches you have in support, the more likely it will be to be weaker and will not be able to hold the price.
Resistance or Resistance Level: Opposite of Support. At least at the beginning, there is a high probability of rejecting the price. The more resistance touches and the weaker the more likely it is to be unable to keep the price down.
SMA: Simple moving average. The average price based on closing prices over a specified period. For RSI, this is the average intensity index value over a specified period.
Oscillator: A technical indicator that varies over time but usually remains within the band between set levels. Therefore, they vibrate between low levels (usually representing conditions for sale) and high levels (usually representing terms for acquisition). For example, relative strength index (RSI) and moving average convergence force (MACD).
MACD Oscillator: Moving Average Convergence Transmittance is a momentum oscillator that shows trends and momentum by subtracting the difference between two moving averages.
RSI Oscillator: The relative strength index is a momentum oscillator that moves between 0 and 100. Measures the change in price speed and the speed of price movement. If the RSI is above 70, it is considered to be over-purchased. If the RSI is below 30, it is considered to be oversold.
Source: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/bitcoin-eyes-130000-if-fed-signals-dovish-policy
