Important takeouts:
The Bitcoin Aviv ratio is below the historic peak level. This indicates that it could exceed $330,000 before the cycle top is confirmed.
Commercial Bitcoin Holdings fell sharply in 2025, pointing to strategic accumulation through strategy, Metaplanet, BlackRock and more.
Bitcoin (BTC) prices have had rocky months, but recent analysis shows that BTC could surge this cycle by an additional 300%. Technical analyst Gert Van Lagen’s X Post highlights the Aviv ratio, a metric that compares Bitcoin’s Money in Money with invested capital (realized capital excluding Miner Rewards).
Historically, when Aviv ratio exceeds the +3σ mean deviation, it signaled the top of the cycle. For example, BTC was $1,200 in 2013, nearly $20,000 in 2017, and about $69,000 in 2021. Currently, the level of Aviv ratio is below its past peak.
The Aviv ratio provides a unique lens on market dynamics, reflecting investor activity and lock-in value. Spikes often show increased trade or profit acquisitions that often precede a major price movement. Van Lagen’s analysis combines this with the circularity of Bitcoin. However, its prediction accuracy lacks validation of various market conditions, and volatility remains wildcard.
In addition to the story, data from the code reveals a significant change: commercial Bitcoin holdings fell from 166,500 to 137,400 in 2025. This decline suggests that large investors would suggest a lower sales pressure or a lower shift towards long-term storage.
The decline in balance at OTC desks this year comes in addition to a robust net inflow into Bitcoin ETFs with a total of $12.818 billion in net worth, led by strategic accumulations by institutional investors led by aggressive purchases of the strategy, and new entrants such as Metaplanet, which has accumulated 10,000 BTC. BlackRock’s Crypto portfolio holds over $70 billion in BTC, summarizing the current intent of key investors in the market.
Market Update: #BlackRock added an additional $250 million #BitCoin on June 17th.
Its current $BTC holdings are valued at over $70 billion. 🤯
(h/t: @arkham) pic.twitter.com/jmjnau2kdy
– Cointelegraph Markets & Research (@cointelegraphmt) June 18, 2025
Related: If history is repeated, the 25% Bitcoin Price Rally is set to follow today’s revision
The Electricity Act will set Bitcoin price targets between $220,000 and $330,000
Similar to Van Lagen’s $330,000 price target, another study by Bitcoin researcher Sminston outlined the equivalent cycle top for BTC. With analysis could potentially reach Bitcoin prices from $220,000 to $330,000 over this cycle, using a 365-day simple moving average (SMA) along the power method model (R² = 0.96).
Currently trading around $104,000, BTC will need a surge of 100% to 200% to collide with these levels. This coincides with a historic peak where prices surpassed the power method trendline.
The model challenges the assumption of reduced volatility that indicates that Bitcoin’s price cycle maintains a significant shaking, as evidenced by a steady departure from the trendline. Although optimistic, researchers warn that the analysis is drawn from only four market cycles, encouraging skepticism.
Similarly, CointeLegraph suggests that Coinglass’ 30 bull market peak indicators can rise to $230,000 despite Bitcin reaching $112,000, not signaling the top of the cycle. Indicators such as Pi Cycle Top and MVRV show that Bull Market has room to run, supporting With’s optimistic outlook.
Related: As eye liquidity for BTC prices at $106K, Bitcoin under $100K under $100K is “low chance”
This article does not include investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading movements include risk and readers must do their own research when making decisions.
