In a wide range of conversations, Matt Crosby, lead analyst at Bitcoin Magazine Pro, sits alongside the reasonable routes of chain cycle experts to explore pressing questions about the minds of many investors.
The discussion is divided into over-chain metrics, ETF flows, market psychology, and corporate accumulation. This is central to understanding whether Bitcoin’s next big move is slowing down and attenuating, or moving forward.
On-Chain Market Location: Not Overheated yet
According to Rational Root, the Bitcoin market is far from cycle fatigue.
“We’re like 0.25. Standard deviation above the short-term cost base… top of the previous cycle… we’ve reached the four standard deviations above…”
This important metric (average acquisition price for recent market participants – exists as a proxy for overheating conditions. Routes argue that this mild positioning suggests we are still in bullish territory.
Structured mountain climbing and parabolic hype
The route noted that the current cycle forms a much more stable structure compared to past cycles.
“We have seen two of these spikes in both ETF approval and elections, and since 2023 there have been structured channels.
Matt Crosby points out that more orderly trends could be a byproduct of the institution, suggesting that this could be a new stage in Bitcoin that suppresses extreme volatility in both directions.
ETF Flow: New Whale
A reasonable route closely tracked the large demand from ETFs.
“Only ETFs are already 3.5 times more. There are also many other sources of demand. They’re stacked up at Bitcoin finance companies…”
This influx is significantly higher than the current daily issue of 450 BTC. ETF demand is combined with the Finance Ministry and long-term holders of companies, and is fundamentally shifting the supply dynamics of Bitcoin.
Human psychology is still dominant
Despite the rise of institutional players, routes remain based on patterns of behavior.
“People were talking about extending/reducing cycles… all cycles… we’ve been talking about it in every previous cycle… that wasn’t different.”
He reiterated that the Bitcoin cycle remains induced by collective psychology: consolidation, fear, and FOMO. So far, data from the current cycle appears to rhyme closely with the 2017 and 2021 cycles.
Are you in the stage of happiness?
Referring to his famous Bitcoin Spiral Chart, Root pointed out.
“We’re actually getting closer to that thrill and happiness stage…it’s very exciting…the next six months won’t be boring.”
Historically, this phase precedes the market peak, but routes have been careful not to provide timing guarantees.
Bitcoin Finance Company: Cheat Codes or Risk?
With the rise of Bitcoin finance companies such as MicroStrategy, Metaplanet and The Blockchain Group, Root is shared.
“It’s really… betting on Fiat money to go down and raise Bitcoin…it’s basically sustainable.”
He highlighted the strategic use of debt by these companies and harnessed the decline of Fiat to accumulate Bitcoin. He also tackles previous skepticism caused by obstacles in the 2022 cycle (such as celsius, blockfi), but he considers current players to be fundamentally sound.
Price prediction and cycle timing
Pushed by prediction, the reasonable route said:
“I’ve always said… between 140 and 240… I don’t think this cycle will go as far as half a million bitcoins.”
He cited the potential for macro risk and extended integration, but has reiterated so far that the current cycle remains historically within normal boundaries.
Are we entering a new era?
Root and Crosby acknowledge the changing nature of Bitcoin’s market participants, but agree that the basic cycle mechanisms still apply.
“If everything starts flashing red…it’s probably not a bad opportunity to lock a bit of profit and lock it up.” – Matt Crossby
Added routes:
“Make sure to check out Bitcoin Magazine Pro… I will definitely treat you as a colleague… It’s the Bitcoin journey we want.”
The final words
The Bitcoin market structure has evolved, but not fundamental. Institutional demand, passive flows, and corporate accumulation are restructuring behavior, but the emotional core of the cycle remains familiar. Investors need to prepare for ongoing benefits, but should remain vigilant for signs of overextension.
For more in-depth research, technical metrics, real-time market alerts, and access to the growing community of analysts, visit bitcoinmagazinepro.com.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making an investment decision.
