Altcoins are brave in the turbulent market situation as Q3 approaches its end.
September is usually a month of attention, but analyst Michael Van De Poppe believes that certain tokens are poised to shine and that the tide could change this year.
Do you repeat history? not much
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Historically, September has been the weakest month for Bitcoin and altcoin. Data shows Bitcoin has dropped by 5% that month, making it the only consistent loss period for crypto readers. Such drops often drag altcoins down as well.
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However, analyst Michael Van de Poppe suggested that this cycle could break tradition when he spoke to beincrypto. He argued that altcoins have favorable conditions to resist the seasonal weakness of Bitcoin.
“It’s true that this cycle was completely different from the previous one, so I think this cycle is different from the previous one. In recent years, the market saw an adjustment in August and I think it was the result of the September correction.
Determining the FOMC rate
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One factor that drives optimism is the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The US Central Bank is planning to cut interest rates for the first time this year. Currently, it is expected that FOMC will cut its fees to 25 bps, from 4.25% to 4.50%.
The CME FedWatch tool shows an 88% chance of this result, increasing investor confidence. Rate reductions ease financial position, improve liquidity and support high-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies. In the case of Altcoins, this can cause an influx as investors seek opportunities for growth.
“The business cycle and monetary expansion were not the best climate for risk-on assets like altcoins. However, as Ethereum is the first invoice, we expect to see strength across the crypto market as interest rate cuts and monetary expansion.
A 10 billion dollar token unlocks first
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In addition to careful optimism, BTC and Altcoins will unlock nearly $10 billion in September. Typically, massive unlocking is heavy on prices by flooding the market with supplies. This dynamic often reduces profits and leads to divestment.
However, this time bullish cues in the wider market could mitigate the impact. With improved sentiment and potential macroeconomic support, altcoins may absorb supply inflows.
“Almost every time, the unlock is rolled over through a new OTC contract, so the actual impact of unlocking is close to zero. However, coins that do not unlock can outweigh unlocked coins.
Altcoins to see
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Speaking to Beincrypto, Michael emphasized in the coming days that Altcoins are primarily from the Defi and Depin sectors, as well as the ETH ecosystem.
“These are three specific verticals for me and they probably work. And while we saw the first signs of a season like this when chain links started to launch, we also saw a massive expansion on the stubcoin side,” Michael pointed out.
ChainLink prices have risen 5% in the last 24 hours, trading at $23.64. Altcoin is trying to flip $23.40 onto a solid support floor. This could provide stability and encourage investors to push links towards a higher level.
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The parabolic SARs currently appearing above candlesticks are moving downwards and suggesting that they are more likely to move below them. Such changes indicate the active-up trend for ChainLink. This momentum could drive rallying, allowing links to target $25.81 resistance and strengthening its recovery path.
Links may have a hard time maintaining momentum if the bearish continues in the wider market. Failure to hold $23.40 could potentially disable Altcoin’s short-term bullish outlook, as it could drag the price down below $22.06.
