A recent study by Swan of Bitcoin Financial Services Company found that most alternative cryptocurrencies (Altcoin) experience rapid and systemic depreciation when measured against Bitcoin (BTC).
The findings highlight the role of Bitcoin as a more stable asset for capital retention in the fluctuating cryptocurrency market.
Bitcoin vs. altcoin: Which is better?
Swan shared his insights in a detailed thread on X (formerly Twitter).
“Altcoins aren’t just below Bitcoin. They’re going to collapse against it,” the post read.
The analysis examined the performance of the top 300 altcoins over five years. We focused on how long these assets take to lose 90% of their value compared to Bitcoin after reaching their all-time high (ATH).
“The median altcoin’s median reached a -90% drawdown in just 10-20 months,” Swann revealed.
Furthermore, according to Swan data, Terra (Luna1), Ontology Gas (ONG) and Bitgert (Brise) collapsed the fastest, earning a 90% drawdown mark in under two months. The larger, more established altcoins were not immune to this trend.
For example, Cardano (ADA) and XRP (XRP) took 36 months to depreciate 90% from its record peak. Meanwhile, Litecoin (LTC) gradually declined, taking 69 months. Monero (XMR) saw the slowest drop and took six years to reach a -90% drop.
Swan’s analysis extends to 45 Altcoins, which have yet to experience a 90% decline. Although they have not yet “collapsed”, the data suggests that they simply delay the inevitable loss.
The average drawdown for these altcoins is 76% from the peak value. Even the best-performing Altcoin of its products has a 43% decrease compared to BTC.
“Bitcoin is still a benchmark for capital preservation. These assets do not hedge Bitcoin. We opposed it,” Swan added.
The findings point to systematic issues within the Altcoin space. Data suggests that Altcoins, which are often sold as an alternative to Bitcoin, cannot provide sustainable value over time compared to major cryptocurrencies.
Swan also emphasized that long-term outperformance by Altcoins is extremely rare. Additionally, the company believes that survivor bias, a trend towards focusing on successful projects, hides widespread collapse across the broader market.
“It’s amazing how altcoins continue to exist with such performances. And once again, humans love gambling,” Swan executive John Haal said.
Why isn’t the Altcoin season coming back?
The increased saturation in the Altcoin market adds to concern. Over 1.8 million tokens have been created over the past month, according to data from CoinmarketCap (CMC).
However, most of these tokens cannot be delivered. Beincrypto recently reported that 89% of tokens listed on Binance in 2025 were red. Therefore, the value of the new Altcoins is more driven by short-term deals and hype, rather than long-term fundamentals.
Furthermore, this surge in token numbers has fragmented market liquidity. These factors even delayed the much-anticipated “Altcoin season.” However, some analysts have even argued that the traditional Altcoin season may never return.
This change is primarily driven by the increased market advantage of Bitcoin, and is strengthened by increasing attention to institutional adoption and regulations. While Bitcoin has solidified its position as a dominant digital asset, the same cannot be said about Altcoins, which struggle to maintain its relevance and investor interest in the face of Bitcoin’s ongoing rise.
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