2027 the Chinese Communist Party’s deadline
for conquering Taiwan Xi Jinping plans to crush Taiwanese subversives by forcing them to
listen to the little red book on Chinese audible in their BYDs on their commute to the Xiaomi
factory Sadly I only made half of that up Top US military defense and intelligence brass have
said that China plans to seize Taiwan by 2027 If this is true then altcoins are the last thing we
should worry about getting nuked So why are they saying this and should we be so facing too let’s
get to the bottom of it My name is Guy and you’re watching the Coin Bureau If China sees Taiwan
by force it could lead to a civilization ending war between China and the US Mighty bearish for
risk assets but like I said the markets would be the least of our concerns But how likely is this
scenario and why would it happen well to answer properly we need to know a bit of history about
China and Taiwan This stuff goes back a very long way But here’s the TLDDR In 1949 the Chinese Civil
War was coming to an end but it was cut short before the Victor’s military campaign was complete
The losing side fled to Taiwan where it called itself the Republic of China or ROC and claimed to
be the only legitimate government of all of China The winning side meanwhile the Communist People’s
Liberation Army or PLA planned to cross the Taiwan Strait evict the ROC and reunify the country under
the newly formed People’s Republic of China or PRC But this plan was frozen with the outbreak of the
Korean War in 1950 The US Navy Seventh Fleet then parked itself in the middle of the Taiwan Strait
and that was pretty much that So unfinished business with two governments claiming to be the
real China This was the origin of the Taiwan issue and it’s why American state-owned media still
claims that China sees Taiwan as a rogue province However this isn’t true The PRC doesn’t refer to
Taiwan in this way It just calls it China’s Taiwan province Much has changed in the last 75 years
and positions on the Taiwan issue have evolved Most importantly since 1979 the PRC has changed
its policy from liberating Taiwan to a peaceful reunification with an autonomous Taiwan That
year the National People’s Congress announced that the PRC would quote “take present
realities into account in accomplishing the great cause of reunifying the motherland
and respect the status quo on Taiwan and the opinions of people in all walks of life there
and adopt reasonable policies and measures in settling the question of reunification so as not
to cause the people of Taiwan any losses.” Now the PRC draws the red line at independence for
Taiwan and this has never changed And this is the core of the one China principle which rejects
the division of the mainland and Taiwan into two separate countries For Beijing all crossstraight
dialogue begins from mutual acceptance of this principle However the PRC’s stance on how one
China should be defined has softened so to speak The ROC no longer contests the PRC’s authority
over the mainland and Beijing statements no longer identify one China with the PRC specifically
This is because of the 1992 consensus which is an understanding that both sides of the Taiwan
Strait can recognize that there is only one China but have different interpretations of what that
means Beijing uses this as a starting point for crossstraight talks but it is controversial in
Taipei Now what’s changed across the straight well since the end of the ROC’s military rule in
1987 the focus on Taiwan’s political and legal identity is less about competing with the PRC
over who the real China is and more about whether Taiwan should formally declare independence seek
some kind of unification with the mainland or maintain the status quo The two main parties
in Taiwan are the Kuamin Tang or KMT and the Democratic Progressive Party or DPP Nowadays the
KMT tends to favor crossstraight dialogue and more amicable relations with Beijing When the KMT has
been in power this has mostly been the case with various quai official exchanges agreements visits
and policy developments taking place between 1987 and 1995 and between 2008 and 2016 The KMT’s
position has changed quite a lot over the years but generally speaking they’re unlikely to do
anything that could upset Beijing too much By contrast the DPP is the secessionist camp These
guys are in a tighter spot because as we all know formally declaring independence is a recipe for
trouble to say the least So the DPP rejects the one China principles in the streets but avoids
making any sudden moves in the sheets so to speak For example current president Ling Tay previously
said he was quote a pragmatic worker for Taiwanese independence However as he rose up the ranks of
government he changed his tune and now says that there’s no need to declare independence because
quote “Taiwan is already a sovereign independent country called the Republic of China.” This is
a way of maintaining peace which it’s safe to say most people on Taiwan want while also giving
a middle finger to Beijing which is a little more divisive Naturally Beijing does not like the DPP
at all However more than political posturing in Taiwan the PRC is concerned about the DPP pursuing
diplomatic recognition abroad and the backing it receives from Western governments The DPP is quite
dependent on the latter so we should probably talk about it and why Beijing gets so upset about
it Until the early 1970s the US backed the ROC’s military dictatorship and its claims to
represent all of China When this pretense wore too thin then President Richard Nixon pulled
the rug and switched sides The ROC was booted out of the UN Security Council and replaced
by the PRC Then Nixon set about establishing a relationship with the PRC This began with the
Shanghai communique of 1972 the fundamental basis for all US PRC relations ever since It says quote
“The United States acknowledges that all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain
there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of China The United States government does
not challenge that position Under the agreement the US would withdraw its nuclear weapons and
troops from Taiwan abandon diplomatic ties with the ROC and stop selling them weapons among other
commitments However the US immediately started reneging on these commitments by establishing
an embassy in Taiwan and continuing arms sales to the ROC Now more recently Beijing has been
peeved about the role of Western non-government organizations or NOS in Taiwan both real and fake
like the National Endowment for Democracy or NE If you’re not familiar the NED was a product of the
NGOization of US foreign policy in the 1980s In the postwatergate era mounting public revelations
about the CIA resulted in a redistribution of some of its functions to civil society organizations
and the NE was created for this purpose The NE says it exists quote to promote freedom around
the world which means destabilizing foreign governments that Washington disapproves of Don’t
take my word for it though Alan Weinstein who helped draft the legislation that created the NE
said in 1991 quote “A lot of what we do today was done covertly 25 years ago by the CIA.” Former
CIA officer and whistleblower Philip Agy said much the same in 1995 quote “Nowadays instead of
having just the CIA going around behind the scenes and trying to manipulate the process secretly by
inserting money here and instructions there and so forth they now have a sidekick which is this
National Endowment for Democracy NE.” Of course color revolutions don’t come cheap The NE was
receiving its entire 9 figure budget from the US government every year until it got doed in 2025
Anyway critics have accused the NE of drumming up support for Taiwan’s 2014 Sunflower Revolution
in which protesters stormed Taiwan’s legislature to stop the KMT government from passing a
crossstraight trade liberalization bill The scenes of protesters storming the assembly have
since been compared to the events of January the 6th 2021 at the US Capital building Although
in this case the Taiwanese protesters enjoyed the support of Hillary Clinton and got to visit
the US Congress and State Department afterwards The KMT flopped in elections in 2014 and 2016
and were replaced by the DPP who have been in power and seeking diplomatic recognition of Taiwan
ever since much to Beijing’s displeasure and the delight of Western China hawks Beijing has though
used its clout to crush most of these diplomatic efforts that involved international institutions
and non-western countries The NE however was undeterred In 2022 it co-hosted the global
assembly of the World Movement for Democracy in Taipei with the DPP European lawmakers and pro-
US think tanks were invited to hype up a Ukraine today Taiwan tomorrow narrative and open up a new
front line of democratic struggle on the island In 2023 the NE’s president flew back to Taiwan to
celebrate the 20th anniversary of the anti-China think tank Taiwan Foundation for Democracy
and present DPP president Saiing Wen with a democracy service medal The PRC hated this which
was a problem for Taiwan because the mainland is its biggest export market a major source of
investment and also tourism revenue All of which started drying up The US partially compensated
for this with trade of its own ramping up weapon sales and formally declaring Taiwan a vital US
interest which places it under the US nuclear umbrella at least in theory This help has
come at a cost for Taiwan However Washington has forced Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing
Corporation or TSMC the world’s most valuable maker of semiconductors to open operations in
the US against the complaints of the company’s leadership President Trump is now trying to get
TSMC to transfer its worldleading semiconductor processing technology to the US in a joint venture
with its floundering US competitor Intel According to polling shared by Taiwan’s deputy legislative
speaker in February some 85% of people in Taiwan are opposed to this technology transfer TSMC is of
such strategic importance that it’s been described as Taiwan’s sacred mountain and its tech as the
island’s silicon shield In other words TSMC is Taiwan’s leverage Anyway since the election of
President Lie in 2024 the DPP has doubled down on its current trajectory The party has become
increasingly unpopular for among other things keeping praise on the recently impeached former
South Korean President Yun’s failed military coup and for urging President Lie to follow suit If
you’re not up to speed Yun was a former head of the prosecution who tried to have the leader
of the opposition jailed on a great variety of charges none of which stuck As president
he was an alcoholic who showed up late to work constantly distrusted his own government and
outsourced policymaking to his favorite YouTubers Yun and his wife were engulfed in many
corruption scandals including serial stock market and electoral manipulation leading to his
approval rating cratering to 17% When he couldn’t take it anymore he snapped declared martial law
and sent the army to dissolve the parliament and kidnap lawmakers The plan was quickly foiled by
members of the public Surprisingly though months of planning had gone into Yun’s failed pivot to
military dictatorship Also on the schedule were plots to torture lawmakers disappear between 500
and 10,000 public figures and provoke a war with North Korea Yun’s rationale was that South
Korea was being overrun by Chinese and North Korean spies information which he’d gathered
from YouTube Now Yun was hated in South Korea but has been celebrated as a visionary in DC
and the sight of himself couping his way out of office was painful for China hawks who’d been
counting on his success In contrast Taiwan’s DPP lawmakers considered this his finest moment and
advised Lie to try something similar Now although not at the level of martial law yet allegations
of political repression have increased under Lie Most notably the leader of Taiwan’s third largest
political party Cowenj has been in jail since December in what critics allege is a political
stitchup orchestrated by the DPP prosecutors and a certain local tabloid Co’s party favors improving
ties with China through cultural exchanges and economic cooperation And it also happens to
control the tiebreaking vote in the legislature Say that’s some nice leverage you’ve got there It
would be a shame if anything happened to it Anyway Co’s prolonged detention on thin evidence has
prompted massive anti-DPP protests in Taiwan And aside from these allegations there’s widespread
general discontent with DPP rule and increased fears of war At the rate things are going they’re
expected to lose the 2028 elections Now of course this is still quite a long way off but the DPP is
the secessionist camp and they’ve advanced their cause just about as far as they can already
without bringing the People’s Liberation Army crashing down on their heads The problem is this
is what Washington’s China hawks want and they have a trillion dollar defense budget at stake Now
what might happen if the DPP loses to the KMT in 2028 well the KMT sure as hell won’t declare
independence So then what are the war hawks supposed to do taiwan isn’t going to invade itself
It’s almost like time is running out From our perspective this might be one of the reasons why
they’ve pulled forward their deadline for China to invade Taiwan to 2027 You see this is only the
latest in a series of dates floated for an alleged Taiwan invasion plan that periodically go viral
in Washington Originally it was supposed to be 2049 the 100th anniversary of the establishment of
the PRC But the alleged date keeps getting closer First 2040 then 2035 then 2030 with the latest
widely propagandized date being 2027 Secretary of State Marco Rubio and former President Biden
have warned of Chinese action then and the US Navy is explicitly preparing for war in 2027 However
China’s President Xi has reportedly expressed bafflement at this new timeline This is according
to an American official who was present at the 2023 US China summit in San Francisco and later
spoke to the press According to their telling quote she basically said “Look I hear all these
reports in the United States of how we’re planning for military action in 2027 or 2035 There are no
such plans No one has talked to me about this Why then did 2027 turn into a viral meme in the US
foreign policy establishment well it all began in 2021 China’s People’s Liberation Army was making
rapid progress towards its modernization goals and was developing manufacturing capacity far beyond
that of the US So concerned American lawmakers created the Pacific Deterrence Initiative to
rush more money to US forces in the region At a congressional hearing a senator asked Admiral Phil
Davidson the retiring head of the US Indo-Pacific Command whether China’s actions under Xi Jinping’s
leadership had changed the odds of conflict around Taiwan Davidson said quote “The threat is
manifest during this decade and specified quote in fact in the next six years.” According
to one congressional aid who spoke to Defense News this eerily specific prediction set alarm
bells ringing in Washington where it was dubbed the Davidson window It seems to have done the
trick too as Congress has been authorizing more and more money for the Indo-Pacific Command The
aid said quote “You can draw a direct line between Admiral Davidson’s comments and the ability to get
something like the foreign military financing for Taiwan through.” In a later hearing General Mark
Millie then chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff claimed that Davidson’s assessment was based on a
speech by President Xi where he allegedly called on the PLA to quote “Develop capabilities to
seize Taiwan and move it from 2035 to 2027.” funnily enough though US officials have never been
able to produce this speech Millie was later asked in Congress whether there was any other witness
who had said China was planning to invade Taiwan by 2027 He said no but added quote “Intent is
something that can change quickly.” Now that is a good one The 2027 date was soon confirmed as
the new party line by CIA director Bill Burns Top military brass continued repeating it and
then Secretary of State Anthony Blinken claimed in late 2022 that China intended to unify with
Taiwan on a quote much faster timeline than the US had previously expected The timeline got out
of hand in early 2023 after a memo from General Mike Minahan head of Air Mobility Command leaked
to the media Quote “My gut tells me we will fight China in 2025.” He wrote “After this the
Pentagon had to intervene to enforce some message discipline Suddenly war with China became
quote neither imminent nor inevitable and this remained the party line for the rest of the Biden
administration.” Well that’s certainly a relief Of course by that time the meme had already produced
some great clickbait and even better defense budgets We should still be wary about China hawks
scaremongering though because they are a permanent feature of the military-industrial complex and
they are indeed running out of time if they want to start a war with China This is partially
because of the threat of local changes breaking up the US war plan Not only Taiwan but also regional
partners South Korea and the Philippines will have elections before 2028 in which more
dovish and less pliable opposition parties stand a good chance of winning and upsetting
Washington’s checkers board More importantly though efforts to frustrate China’s growth have
failed With 230 times the ship building capacity of the US the PLA adds more equipment in a year
than the Pentagon does in a decade and for much cheaper Meanwhile the expansion of bricks and
China’s belt and road initiative are rendering US sanctions increasingly useless and China
wellprepared to ride out Trump’s trade war Meanwhile Washington’s involvement with wars in
the Middle East and Ukraine have torched much of America’s soft power in the developing world
while the Trump administration is simultaneously severing ties with Europe trying to annex Canada
and Greenland and calling Chinese people peasants while tariffstricken US allies scrambled to
form closer trade relations with Beijing The ever shrinking window for China to invade Taiwan
shows us the fear of the hawks in Washington If they want a war that they can win then the
clock is very much ticking But they’ll need to shoot a buzzerbeating four-point floater
Whereas China well it just needs to run the clock Anywh who the trade war alone has hurt my
bags enough So let’s hope cooler heads prevail and nobody will do anything stupid involving
you know weapons In the meantime let’s think happy thoughts like Larry Frink saying BTC
could become a global reserve currency Wait do we want him saying that well you can find out
in this video over here That’s all from me for now though As always thank you for watching and
I’ll see you next time This is Guy Over and out
